KP adviser challenges federal growth, jobs claims ahead of budget

ISLAMABAD: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister’s Adviser on Finance Muzzammil Aslam on Monday questioned the federal government’s economic projections, saying the country was heading into the presentation of the Shehbaz Sharif government’s fifth consecutive budget amid historically high unemployment and inflation and a stagnant economy.

Speaking at a press conference at KP House in Islamabad, Aslam said no previous government in Pakistan’s history had presented five consecutive budgets. He said the federal government expected economic growth to reach 3.7pc by the close of the current fiscal year and had set a 4pc target for the next year, but argued that the widely promoted Uraan Pakistan initiative had not translated into improvement on the ground.

Questions over growth data

Aslam said the government had projected inflation at 8.2pc for the coming fiscal year. He challenged the claim of 3.7pc growth in the current year, pointing to official figures showing major crops expanding by only 0.6pc. He also said the government had reported livestock growth of 3.8pc while fodder crops showed negative growth of 2.1pc, which he argued undermined the credibility of the broader growth estimates.

He said the government was relying on a limited number of sectors to support claims of industrial expansion. Citing official figures, he said the automobile industry had grown by 60pc, auto transport equipment by 40pc, furniture by 20pc, and football manufacturing by 23pc. At the same time, he said, electricity generation had fallen by 10pc.

Aslam also disputed the government’s claim that small-scale industries were growing at 8.5pc, saying its own statistics did not align with that figure and raising doubts about how overall economic growth could be achieved in such conditions.

Concerns over unemployment, poverty and jobs

Referring to the government’s estimate that the economy had reached a size of $453 billion, Aslam said that should have been reflected in stronger per capita income. However, he said Planning Commission data showed the highest levels of unemployment and poverty in the past 21 years, and asked how an economy described as expanding could coincide with worsening social indicators.

He further said the government was claiming to have created 1.8 million jobs even as more people were leaving the country in search of employment. According to the figures he cited, 1.1 million jobs were added in services, 400,000 in industry and 300,000 in agriculture. He argued that these claims were difficult to reconcile with 0.6pc growth in major crops and the severe difficulties faced by industry.

Trade and development allocations

Aslam also criticised the government’s external sector projections. He said the export target for 2026-27 had been set at $32.8bn, even though Pakistan’s exports had already reached about $32bn in 2022. He questioned how such a small increase could support claims of strong economic expansion, while noting that imports were projected to rise to $70bn.

He added that the remittance target had been fixed at $42bn and argued that when remittances are projected to exceed exports, it points to weaknesses in productive capacity and economic growth.

On development spending, Aslam said the federal government had announced a development budget of Rs1.126 trillion, while the total cost of the projects it had announced stood at Rs10tr. He said that meant only Rs1.126tr would be allocated against projects carrying a total cost of Rs10tr.