UAE adviser says US-Iran deal has 50-50 chance, warns against renewed conflict

PRAGUE: A political settlement between the United States and Iran has a 50-50 chance of materialising, according to Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, who also cautioned that a fresh round of fighting would deepen regional instability.

Speaking at the Globsec conference in Prague on Friday, Gargash said any agreement must go beyond a simple ceasefire and address the underlying causes of tension in the region. He said a settlement focused only on halting hostilities could leave the door open to another conflict later.

Pakistan has been mediating a US-Iran ceasefire aimed at ending a war that has rattled the global economy and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.

Gargash said the chances of a peace agreement were evenly balanced and expressed concern over Tehran’s negotiating approach.

It is a 50-50 chance that we will reach an agreement. My worry is that the Iranians have always over-negotiated

He added that Iran had missed opportunities in the past because, in his view, it had overestimated its leverage.

This is not something new. They have missed many opportunities over the years because of a tendency to overestimate their cards. I hope they don’t do that this time

Call for broader political solution

Gargash said the region needed a political solution and warned that another military confrontation would make the situation more difficult. He stressed that the objective should not be a ceasefire alone if the deeper drivers of instability remain unresolved.

Gargash said that was not the outcome being sought, underlining the need for a more durable arrangement.

Concerns over attacks and Strait of Hormuz

Iran has repeatedly targeted the UAE during the conflict, including attacks on civilian infrastructure and areas near US military facilities hosted by the Gulf state.

Emirati officials said Iranian drone and missile strikes hit desalination plants, energy facilities, and areas around Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Gargash also warned against any move that would place the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian leverage, saying such a development would create a dangerous precedent by politicising the strategic waterway.

He said any change to the existing status of the strait would carry serious consequences globally, including for Europe, and urged European countries to treat the matter as directly tied to their own energy security and trade interests.

According to Gargash, the Strait of Hormuz should return to its pre-war status as an international waterway that ensures the uninterrupted movement of energy supplies, trade and maritime traffic, as it had for decades.