Mild heatwave likely in southern Pakistan from April 29 to May 3, says PMD

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said on Monday that mild heatwave conditions are expected to develop in the southern parts of the country from April 29 to May 3.

In a weather update, the department said upper parts of Pakistan are likely to come under the influence of a westerly wave from the night of April 27 to April 29 and again from May 3 to May 5. This system is expected to bring down temperatures by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in those areas.

The PMD also said El-Niño conditions are likely to emerge during May to July. It described El Nino as a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that raises surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and alters wind, pressure and rainfall patterns.

Climate observations show that May and June are the hottest months of the year in Pakistan, while south Punjab, upper Sindh, and southern and eastern Balochistan are among the country’s most heat-prone regions.

“The observed climate suggests that May and June are the hottest months during the year, while south Punjab, upper Sindh, southern/eastern Balochistan are heat-prone areas of the country, with temperatures sometimes shooting up to 52°C due to heatwave conditions,” the PMD said.

The department added that temperatures in these regions usually range between 43°C and 45°C during May and June. However, based on observational data, temperatures there are currently 2 to 4°C above normal.

The PMD said it is continuously monitoring the situation and would issue a further advisory if heatwave conditions intensify.

“If any heatwave is likely to develop, an update will be issued accordingly,” it said.

Recent warnings and global outlook

The PMD’s advisory comes days after the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), through its National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC), issued a nationwide alert warning of an intense heatwave in several regions until May 5.

Last week, the United Nations said the El Nino weather phenomenon was expected to return in mid-2026. Its weather and climate agency said El Nino conditions could develop as early as May to July.

The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest year ever recorded.

The latest PMD forecast highlights the likelihood of above-normal temperatures in southern parts of the country over the coming days, while cooler conditions are expected in upper regions during the periods affected by the westerly wave.