Loadshedding returns

Loadshedding being blamed on RLNG shortage

Power Minister Awais Leghari has said that loadshedding will continue till Reliquified Natural Gas supplies resume. That means that they are probably not going to resume this summer, because the break in supply from Qatar is not simply because of the blockades of the Hormuz Strait imposed by Iran and the USA, but because of Iranian missile strikes at its LNG production facilities last month. The result has been a 17 percent loss of production. As Qatar is one of the largest RLNF producers in the world, this has led to shortages everywhere, including Pakistan. As the repairs will take three to five years, Mr Leghari is in effect predicting what will feel like permanent loadshedding. There was a mismatch between RNLG cargoes which Pakistan committed to buy, and those actually used, which might help the parlous forex position.

The loadshedding is unfortunately not unfamiliar, though the reasons have changed. Whereas there used to be a plain lack of generating capacity, now the generating capacity exists, but the imported furnace oil to be used would make the tariff unsustainable, as the fuel adjustment surcharge would have to be raised to unpayable levels. That implies that the issue has arisen because Pakistan has not worked vigorously enough on substituting imported energy by the renewables aplenty around us in the country, such as water, wind and sunlight. The last mentioned, in the shape of physical power, is the real game changer, because it requires an investment small enough that it can be afforded by consumers. As it is, whatever solar power has been installed despite ministerial and utility opposition, has the the saving of the country, which would have really been up the creek had consumers been using expensive oil-generated thermal power only.

However, switching to alternative, non-hydrocarbon-fired power sources is for the future. Patience will be required for Qatar to repair its LNG facilities, but opening the Straits of Hormuz will be key in the meanwhile. That can only be done by purposeful diplomacy. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s swing though Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir’s visit to Tehran, shows that Pakistan is not stinting effort. It must be remembered that the crisis does not just affect power generation but engulfs the whole economy, and all efforts must be made to solve it.