Pakistan, Qatar in advanced talks over LNG cargoes amid power shortfall

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is in advanced discussions with Qatar to secure at least four cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as it scrambles to stabilise power supply following disruptions linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, officials and sources said.

According to a report by Dawn, the Power Division has already formally requested the Petroleum Division to arrange around 400 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of LNG to sustain electricity generation, particularly as demand begins to climb ahead of peak summer.

LNG imports were disrupted early last month after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during a conflict triggered by US-Israel strikes on Iran. In response, Iran targeted fuel installations in Gulf states hosting US assets, prompting widespread supply uncertainty. Amid the escalation, Qatar invoked force majeure on its LNG contracts, including those with Pakistan.

Sources said several Qatari LNG cargoes had earlier been unable to pass through the chokepoint, with an estimated 25 to 30 shipments currently stranded between processing facilities and Hormuz. Pakistan has requested that at least four of these cargoes be diverted to meet its urgent energy needs, with technical teams from both sides engaged in ongoing negotiations.

The push comes as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif concluded a tri-nation diplomatic tour that included a visit to Qatar, partly aimed at easing regional tensions and supporting fuel supply channels.

A senior Petroleum Division official said there were emerging signs that fuel routes through Hormuz could stabilise, but warned that immediate LNG availability remained critical. The requested 400mmcfd supply is intended to support both the national grid and the K-Electric system.

Officials cautioned that electricity shortfalls could worsen as temperatures rise, noting that LNG-based power plants — particularly in Punjab with a combined capacity of around 6,000 megawatts — are essential for maintaining grid stability.

The Power Division, in a letter to the Petroleum Division, stressed that any disruption in regasified LNG (RLNG) supply would force reliance on expensive alternatives such as high-speed diesel (HSD). This, it warned, would significantly increase generation costs and prolong load shedding, ultimately raising the fuel cost burden on consumers.

Currently, HSD-based electricity generation is considered economically unviable, with costs estimated to have surged beyond Rs80 per unit amid volatile global oil prices. Officials also noted that HSD demand remains high in transport and agriculture, limiting its availability for power generation.

Pakistan’s four major LNG-based plants, along with the Nandipur facility, can operate on alternate fuels, but at significantly higher costs. These plants are also crucial for transmitting surplus electricity from southern regions to demand centres.

To manage the crisis, the Power Division has prepared detailed weekly RLNG demand forecasts, separating solar and non-solar consumption patterns for the National Grid Company. K-Electric has also submitted its requirements to ensure system-wide coordination.

Despite reduced daytime demand due to growing solar adoption — which has lowered grid reliance to below 9,000MW during daylight hours — officials said evening demand continues to surge, with peak consumption currently reaching 19,000 to 20,000MW and expected to exceed 28,000MW during peak summer.

Authorities warn that without timely LNG supplies, maintaining grid stability and avoiding prolonged outages will remain a significant challenge in the coming weeks.