Stepping back from the brink

Trump allows a two-week ceasefire, but after that?

US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the US-Israeli attack on Iran, after the latter agreed to the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, thereby allowing the restoration of the 20 percent of the world’s oil supply that had been blocked. However, amid the euphoria and tumbling oil prices (Brent crude slipped to $93 from $110) and rising stock markets, the question remains of what would happen after the ceasefire. Mr Trump has allied the pause to give time to diplomacy, the reason he had given for the original pause. This two-week pause succeeds a previous postponement, and thus he has not got a deal, but only the opening of the Hormuz Strait. It is still not clear whether this postponement is meant to be permanent or whether it will only result in a renewal of the attack after the end of the pause, or will this mean the world is heading towards peace.

Though the ceasefire does mean that oil prices will come down, the main US war aims do not seem to have been achieved. Though Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been killed, along with a number of leading Iranian leaders and commanders, the survivors are not producing the stockpiles of enriched uranium, nor are they committing to end their missile programme. Left in its present state, it seems that the war has not resolved anything. That means the chances of a renewal at some future date are bright. That is the lesson of this conflict, which came after a bombing campaign last June. Though the Iranian proposal will form the basis of talks, it is unlikely that the USA will agree to such demands as withdrawal from the Middle East or paying reparations.

There is general satisfaction that the fighting will now cease, though the question of Israel will remain. After all, the war started because Israel pressed the USA, and little or no attention is being paid to whether Israel has achieved its war aims or not. Thus though it is not directly involved in the negotiations, it is going to be Israeli wishes that determine the USA’s posture. Iran has proved its point about its ability to close the Hormuz Strait, and thus how crucial it is to the global economy, while the USA has not had to deal with how it was going to ‘end a civilisation’, as Mr Trump put it, perhaps with more picturesqueness than accuracy.