Extension in the pause

Trump gives more time to let backchannel talks work

US President Donald Trump has extended the pause in the attack on Iran’s energy plants for another 10 days, to noon GMT on April 6. There was originally a five-day pause in that attack, which has now been extended, which is a sign thst the talks are going in the right direction. That in turn means that Iran does not think that the USA is making demands that it cannot fulfill, while the USA feels that the talks may lead to its demands being accepted. So far, it seems, the talks are centred on US proposals, in the shape of a 15-point peace plan. They include among other things a dismantling of its missile programme, end of its su[[ort to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, and handing over the enriched uranium it has. Pakistan is said to be acting as the mediator, playing a vital rolw in exchanging messages at this point, as the sides are not in contact with each other directly.

Pakistan should not be too forward in this matter. It may well be in its national interest for the conflict to de-escalate and the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. It may well be that it has secured petrol supplies into May, as it has, but there is another trap it must be careful to fall into. One of the problems with settlements of this sort are that there are always loose ends. One side, and frequently both, usually blames the mediator for them when they arise. The Foreign Office should stop basking in the gaze of the world, and leave Egypt and Turkiye to take on more of the burden. The best thing Pakistan can do is to move both sides into holding direct negotiations as quickly as possible.

There is one barrier to there being a ceasefire, and that is Israel. It is assumed that the USA’s say-so would be enough to stop the war, but Israel has shown that it is quite capable of acting against US interests (which are for an end to the conflict) and of sabotaging negotiations with Iran, which it has done previously. That is a danger Pakistan should leave to Egypt and Turkiye to face; after all, they have recognized it, and thus its diplomats can engage with their Israeli counterparts without getting into any of the complications Pakistani diplomats would have to face.