The next level

Israel’s attack on Iran’s gas field raises spectre of war reaching oil facilities in entire theatre

The pattern has now become unmistakable. Israel is the junior partner in the USA’s war with Iran, and it is using its targetting to ensure that the war continues. It started leading the assassination campaign which started the war, the most prominent victim being Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and then the air strikes which killed Basij commander Brig Gen Gholamreza Soleimani and National Security Adviser Ali Larijani, with intelligence chief Esmail Khatib the latest victim. Not only was Iran being deprived of its leadership, it was being deprived of the figures most likely to lead negotiations successfully. The USA has apparently been left to engage more military targets, such as missile launchers. As if to ensure that surviving leaders had no thought of dialling down the conflict, it struck at the South Paras/North Dome gas field, marking a dangerous escalation inn the conflict. While the loss of production from the field will have negative consequences for Iran, they will not be immediate. More immediately, will come the desire to retaliate.

Iran has expressed the desire to do so. If it follows its policy of targeting those countries which have US bases from which attacks are launched, it can cause a wealth of damage, which it will take generations to repair. Those states now have to balance the utility of US bases, with the consequences of continuing to host them on their primary source of income. It is equally possible that they will not have any choice left in the matter, for the USA is likely to want to keep some bases by force. The rest of the world was anxious enough at the closure of the Hormuz Strait, and its worries about the rise in oil prices will increase manifold with the prospect of a permanent destruction of productive capacity.

It is thus probably appropriate for Pakistan to offer mediation as it has, after a lot of more discreet contacts at various levels with Muslim countries. It is noe time for Pakistan to combine with other Muslim states with ties to the USA, such as Egypt and Turkey, to use whatever good offices they have with the USA to oblige it to stop the war. It should be clear that Iran took no agressive action, and thus it is up to the USA to stop fighting, which would end the conflict that threatens the prosperity of the entire world.