Spiralling out of control

Trump may not know how to get out

AT PENPOINT

As the US-Israeli attack on Iran continued for a second week, the conflict started to spin out of control, and to grow wider, dragging in other countries of the region. The war caused global pain because it threatened oil and gas supplies, thus sending up the global oil price, with the effect that that would have on economic growth not just for developing countries, but those already industrialized.

Iran is for the time being not showing any signs of giving in to the demands by Israel and the USA, even though one of the first ascites of this campaign was the killing of the Iranian Supreme Leader. The fatal flaw in the US-Israel calculation was that the Iranian people would rise against the regime. They did not, because there was no clear alternative. Well, not so much a clear alternative as any alternative at all. It should not be forgotten that the Iranian people rose against Raza Shah with the alternative of Ayatollah Khomeini in sight. Even then, it was not a clean transition, mainly because the Shah did not give up until many had died. More important, there was, as there almost never is for any regime change, no constitutional path.

Though Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed, he has been replaced by his son Mojtaba. A council did exercise his functions, but the Assembly of Experts has now met and elected him. Trump has already ‘vetoed’ Mojtaba, thus indicating that he is not so much interested in regime change as ensuring that the present regime follows his dictates. However, the regime has indicated by its choice that it has no intention of compromise.

The war may spin out of control. One of the largest, but least followed, developments is how Israel has used the attack on Iran to prosecute a war on Lebanon. It has so far killed about 400 people through air attacks, with no end in sight. There has also been an exchange of attacks on desalination plants, in Iran and in Bahrain.

This is despite the Iranian declaration that it would only attack countries where attacks originated from. This would increase pressure on the USA not to use all the bases it had in the area, even though it had developed the network precisely because it anticipated an attack on Iran. The attack on Bahrain might be because of its role as the main US naval base in the region in servicing the aircraft carriers from which attacks were being launched on Iranian targets.

The Iranian declaration is unlikely to be accepted by either the insurers who now refuse to insure ships using the Straits of Hormuz, or the shipping lines which have suspended using the Straits. There has been no formal blockade by Iran of the Straits of Hormuz, but as events have transpired, its being in a war zone means that the effects are the same.

Trump got into this war because Israel wanted him to, and Israel did so because it did not know what else to do. It has given Netanyahu a new lease of life in office, in which he had become shaky after the wind-down in Gaza. However, Trump does not realise that Iran is not the problem, but Israel. So long as it remains, there will be trouble in the Middle East.

However, there are other prospects of the war spreading. One of them is the fomenting of trouble among the Kurds. Iranian Kurds have been less militant than those of Turkey, Syria or Iraq.

It may be noted that those in Iraq and Turkey were under Ottoman rule, while those in Iran were under Persian rule. The USA has been paying attention to the Kurds in Turkey and Iraq since the end of World War I, but it has not paid those in Iran the same attention, until now.

The Syrian Kurds have warned the Iranian Kurds of cooperating with the USA, pointing to their own example, when they were not given support against the forces of Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, but instead told to join him.

For the time being, though, Trump has ruled out their use. However, he is a notoriously unreliable character, and this may not be his final word. The USA made good use of the Kurds of Iraq, giving them a separate region of their own, which combined with Iranian, Syrian and Turkish Kurd areas would make up a possible state. However, at the moment, the Kurds are working with the USA, and in three countries acting as a check on the pro-US leadership, while in Iran it is a possible way of attacking the regime.

Another dimension that Iran might want to watch out for is a link-up between the Americans and the Iranian Baloch nationalists, which might be facilitated by India, which is closely associated with Pakistan’s Baloch separatists, and through them should be able to get in touch with Iran’s. That could create a problem for Iran in its south-east, which would be a grisly complement to any Kurd activity, which would be in the north-west.

Meanwhile, there is the Pakistan conundrum. In principle, Pakistan should support Iran fully. Not only has Iran always supported Pakistan in its conflicts with India, the latest example being during last year’s Pehelgam confrontation, but there is a sectarian element. Pakistan does not want to go down that particular road.

The problem lies in Pakistan’s mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia. It could be invoked if Iran was to attack Saudi soil. Saudi Arabia is vulnerable to Iranian attack because it hosts more than one US base. There has been a Pakistani killed, but in UAE. The defence agreement is not binding, and can only be enforced if the governments agree. Pakistan has long had a policy of avoiding any embroilment in Middle Eastern quarrels, but this would require going against Saudi Arabia, as well as the USA, with which it has recently been trying to curry favour with.

One of the main difficulties faced by the USA is the worsening of the economy because of the rising oil prices. With the midterm polls due in less than eight months, Trump is on a schedule. The war has already lasted long enough for Trump to lose control of both Houses of Congress, and he now needs a takeaway that will show the US electorate that the war was worth it. 

at, it seems, Iran is denying him.

So far, there are no voices pointing out that if he stops the attacks, things would probably go back to normal for the world within days: oil prices would go down, disrupted supply chains would be restored. However, as time goes on, destruction will increase, which will mean that post-war reconstruction costs will rise in Iran and the Gulf.

Trump has made noises about the war being over, which indicates either a desire to get out of a mess he has himself made, or simply a loss of attention, a certain boredom. The strategy of declaring victory and getting out seems at work, but the problem is that at this point, the USA has achieved nothing.

Part of the problem is that Trump seems to have been seduced by the promise of air power. Back in 1999, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia compelled Yugoslavia to surrender, providing the first example of a war won by air power. Has Trump ignored the fact that the USA had to use ground troops in its invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq? Without sending in ground troops, the task cannot be accomplished. Killing the leader has a stiffening effect on successors, and removes someone who might have some stake in remaining in office and making concessions for that.

Trump got into this war because Israel wanted him to, and Israel did so because it did not know what else to do. It has given Netanyahu a new lease of life in office, in which he had become shaky after the wind-down in Gaza. However, Trump does not realise that Iran is not the problem, but Israel. So long as it remains, there will be trouble in the Middle East.