No light at end of tunnel

Killing of Larijani makes peace grow more distant

The killing of Iranian National Security Adviser and chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani and Basij commander Brig Gen Gholamreza Soleimani by an Israeli airstrike should have brought the Iranians closer to surrender, as it should make the remaining Iranian leadership fearful for their own lives. On the other hand, it may merely stiffen resolve, as have previous deaths, including that of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, among that leadership. The late Mr Larijani was integral to the Iranian establishment, being not only its chief nuclear negotiator, but also having served as speaker of Iran’s Parliament. He was also the conservative candidate for President, losing to President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad when the latter ran for a second term. The late Brigadier Soleimani was an old Basij hand, having reached the command of a Basij battalion during the Iran-Iraq war. As commander of the Basij, which has been merged into the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps since 1971, he would have been at the forefront of any ground assault by the USA. either Kurdish forces from Iraq or Marines crossing from Turkmenistan. 

Israel is responsible, for the initial announcement was made by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, and has a special interest in Mr Larijani’s elimination because he had a reputation as being someone who could conduct the sorts of talks needed to end this situation. How exactly the USA and Israel propose to end this war is difficult to discern, because all conflicts end in talks of some kind, and if there are no interlocutors, even accepting surrender becomes a problem. US President Donald Trump is also making things difficult with vain boasts. His latest and vainest has been his claim that the USA would reopen the Strait of Hormuz alone, after his claim that other countries would help provide escorts was rejected by those countries. The obvious question is why the USA is not providing any escorts.

The arrival in Karachi of a crude cargo from the Hormuz Strait was clearly a welcome development, but it by no means should be taken to mean that the crisis is over. Pakistan still faces the prospect of shortages, something which was shown by the decision to cancel the traditional Mar 23 parade. Things would probably have been much worse, had it not been for the installation in recent years of solar energy, with a report saying that Pakistan could save $6.3 billion this year in oil imports, at war-inflated prices.