Declaring victory

Attack on Kharg brings new dimension to fighting

US President Donald Trump has declared victory over Iran, saying that it has been thoroughly defeated. The Iranian leadership does not seem to agree, even though the US attack on Kharg Island, targeting military facilities there, may have degraded its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island is also the energy hub of Iran, as it handles 90 percent of the country’s oil exports. The USA has claimed it has avoided oil facilities, but it is difficult to see how long it will manage to continue this restraint. A further weakening of that restraint will occur if Iran comes good on its promise to make attacks on any facility in the region with US ties. It has claimed to have targeted a US base in Saudi Arabia. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi once again warned Gulf States to shut down US bases in them, or face attack. So far, both sides are hanging back from attacking oil facilities, though there have been some attacks on UAE and Qatari facilities.

If that restraint was to disappear, it would be as damaging, if not more, than the closure of the Hormuz Strait. After all, while the Hormuz Strait can easily be reopened, simply by the assurance that vessels will not be shot at (and even if mines were laid, which has not yet happened, minesweeping is relatively simple); drilling and refining facilities may involve years to build again). The Strait closure seems to weight heavily on the USA too, with Mr Trump accompanying his victory declaration by saying that several countries would send warships to help open the Strait. Mr Trump, in a post on Truth Social, said the UK, France. China, Japan and South Korea would send ships. Meanwhile, the Iranian military’s spokesman said that the aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, had left the operational area, after it had been ‘neutralized’. That would represent a significant reduction in airpower in the theatre.

Mr Trump has declared victory, and should be ready to get out of the war, but he has not been making the right moves. Oman, which has previously mediated, has been trying again, but has been rebuffed by the USA. It seems that there is no country which can act as a mediator. Mr Trump has not had his easy victory, and might find the war costing him the midterms. However, he will find that just saying so will not give him the win he so badly wants.