US attack on Iran

The attack seems likely to last for some time

The US attack on Iran came on Saturday, with a wide range of air strikes against various Iranian targets, seemingly intent on degrading military capabilities, but including a decapitation strike which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeni in 1989. A number of security officials are reported as also killed in this strike, though it was not specified who they were. All the efforts a a peaceful resolution, encapsulated in the talks at Geneva between the USA and Iran, had clearly ended without any result. Though the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had launched attacks on 27 US bases in the region, as well as targets in Israel. While casualties have been reported in Israel, more than 200 Iranians have also been reported killed.

OPEC+ has increased production, in anticipation of the price rises that are expected. So far, Iran does not seem to have blockaded the Straits of Hormuz, through which about a quarter of the world’s oil supplies pass. However, it is likely to try, and then oil prices, which have so far been rising steadily, will spike. Pakistan has seen the effects of this, as reflected by the rise inf prices of various fuels at the pump. Prices have been fixed for a fortnight, but past experience shows that any sudden increases will be passed on to the consumer at once. It seems that the fragile economic recovery over which the Shehbaz government had presided, and very carefully nurtured, is likely to go down in flames. With an IMF review team in town, it is time to talks turkey, because it is not necessary that the present Extended Fund Facility will be able to withstand the present shock.

Pakistan is already facing a tense security situation, and it is only to be hoped that the rioting in Karachi is not a harbinger of things to come. There is also the threat of sectarian divisions, unless both Shia and Sunni unite in an anti-Americanism which the government has been at pains to discourage. Its anxiety to cooperate with the USA, such as by importing oil from it and export it rare-earth ores, is not likely to win it many friends at this point. Pakistan might use its new clout with the USA to bring this conflict to an end. After all, this conflict only has downsides for it.