Heading towards war

The USA seems to have trapped itself into attacking Iran

Nothing comes to mind more when looking at the US build-up in the Middle East against Iran than the way the mobilization plans of Germany and Austro-Hungary led to World War I, in that late summer of 1914, after the assassination of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne. Just as European governments could not pause their mobilizations once launched, the USA has now poured so many forces into the region that nothing short of utter surrender would allow US President Donald Trump to draw down his forces. Though there is no indication of ground troops. The USA has moved large forces into the region, enough to launch devastating strikes on Iran from the air. The game plan seems to be that the chaos and destruction will generate a groundswell against the government, and allow some form of revolution that would put in place a government that would do the US bidding on the Iranian nuclear programme. Perhaps more than the US build-up is the fact that talks are not taking place.

This time, it seems, the USA may target regime figures. Also not certain is the role that Israel is supposed to pay. However, the USA will find its task complicated by Iranian targeting of Israel. It may also respond with missile barrages against various US bases in the region. There have been talks, but they have stalled on core issues, from uranium enrichment to missiles to sanctions relief. One source has said that it would be mid-March before all US forces are in place. There is no indication of what sort of timeline Iran is looking at.

One of the most immediate consequences for the rest of the world is the rise in the price of oil. Third-World oil importers like Pakistan have already begun to feel the squeeze. In Pakistan’s case, the hard-won economic stability is already going out the window, and a worsening of the economic situation is very much on the cards. Also likely to draw attention in Pakistan is the religious factor, with another attack on a Muslim country by a non-Muslim, with the Gaza situation not fully under control. There is also a sectarian factor, and any resurgence in sectarian violence, such as the USA is likely to foment, unacceptable to Pakistan. Most problematic is that the USA might have a wishlist, but lacks clarity about what is doable. That is a very dangerous proposition.