Pakistan’s population crosses 257m as growth slows but pressure mounts

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s population has expanded beyond 257 million at midyear, keeping the country among the world’s largest populations even as birth rates and growth indicators continue to trend downward, according to new figures released by the US Census Bureau.

Population projections compiled by the US Census Bureau and the United Nations place Pakistan’s population density at 333 people per square kilometre, a level that experts say is intensifying pressure on land, transport systems, housing and public services.

The data reflect a country locked in a difficult demographic phase, where the number of people continues to rise rapidly even though family sizes are gradually shrinking.

Pakistan’s annual population growth rate currently stands at 1.82 per cent. While this marks a clear slowdown from previous decades, it remains high enough to add millions of people each year for the foreseeable future.

The country’s total fertility rate has declined to 3.25 births per woman. However, this figure still sits well above the replacement level of 2.1, ensuring continued growth driven by a large generation now entering reproductive age.

Health indicators linked to the population transition remain weak. Average life expectancy at birth is estimated at 60.5 years, ranking Pakistan near the bottom among South Asian countries. The under-five mortality rate stands close to 65 deaths per 1,000 live births, highlighting persistent gaps in maternal healthcare, nutrition services, disease prevention and primary medical coverage.

Taken together, these trends point to a transition in which population growth is slowing faster than improvements in survival and longevity.

A comparison with neighbouring countries highlights how Pakistan is diverging from regional demographic patterns. India, now the world’s most populous nation with roughly 1.46 to 1.47 billion people, has already brought fertility below replacement level, with an estimated rate of about 1.9 births per woman.

Although India’s population will continue to rise due to its large youth cohort, its growth rate is decelerating quickly, shifting policy focus toward workforce ageing, pensions and productivity challenges.

Bangladesh presents a different trajectory. With a population estimated between 175 and 176 million living in one of the most densely populated landscapes on earth, it has lowered fertility to near-replacement levels. It has also recorded sustained improvements in child survival and life expectancy, largely through investments in female education, family planning and primary healthcare outreach.

Pakistan, despite having more available land per person, has not matched similar gains in key social indicators.

Afghanistan, meanwhile, remains at an early stage of demographic transition. With a population exceeding 44 million and fertility still above four births per woman, it continues to face high child mortality and low life expectancy. Analysts note that Afghanistan’s current profile resembles Pakistan’s population structure from several decades ago.

Pakistan’s population pyramid remains heavily weighted toward younger age groups. The large number of children, teenagers and young adults entering the workforce means pressure on education systems, transport networks, housing markets and employment opportunities will intensify well into the 2030s and 2040s.

Even if fertility continues to fall, the existing size of the younger population ensures that demand for jobs and public services will remain high for decades. Economists warn that without steady economic expansion and sustained employment creation, this youth-heavy structure could deepen social and economic stress.

Urban areas are already absorbing much of this pressure through unplanned expansion, congested transport corridors and growing gaps in access to health and education services.

Worldwide, population growth is now expanding at the slowest pace in recorded history. With the global total exceeding eight billion, projections indicate the world could approach nine billion by the late 2030s before stabilising later in the century.

This deceleration is being driven by steep declines in fertility across East Asia, Europe and Latin America. Even South Asia, historically one of the fastest-growing regions, is now moving toward lower birth rates.

Pakistan, however, continues to grow at a pace that keeps population pressures firmly in place.

Demographers describe Pakistan as standing at a critical turning point. Fertility is falling, but not sharply enough to ease short-term pressures. Mortality is improving, but not fast enough to push life expectancy to regional benchmarks. Meanwhile, urbanisation is advancing without the infrastructure required to sustain it.

Experts caution that without major progress in girls’ education, reproductive health services, nutrition, clean water and large-scale job creation, Pakistan could face the coming decades with both a rapidly ageing population and weak human capital.

They argue that the next 20 years will largely determine whether Pakistan converts its youth-heavy population into long-term economic strength or faces prolonged stress on public finances, healthcare systems and labour markets.