ISLAMABAD: The country’s major political parties are taking an unprecedented interest in the election of Gilgit-Baltistan after the announcement of granting GB provincial status, with over 300 candidates to take part in the polls for the 24-seat Gilgit Baltistan Legislative Assembly.
At least 320 contenders have filed nomination papers and the residents of GB will cast votes in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic and on November 15.
Tough competition is expected in GB wherein Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Pakistan People’s Party are expected to have close races in many constituencies.
According to political pundits, the ruling party is likely to grab more seats. However, it is noteworthy that, unlike the election in 2015 when the party could hardly win a seat, PPP is apparently in a position to grab some seats as the party leadership has participated extensively in the election campaign.
Interestingly, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz – which completed its term in June 2020 – is not expected to win more than one or two seats despite the fact that the party enjoyed a two-third majority during its five-year term. Almost all the electables of the party have joined either PTI or are contesting the election as independent candidates.
The two religiopolitical parties including Majlis-s-Wahdatul Muslimeen (MWM) and Pakistan Islami Tehreek (PIT) are likely to grab two to three seats in the election.
BRIEF ANALYSIS OF ELECTION IN CONSTITUENCIES:
Gilgit Division:
GBLA-1 Gilgit-1
In this crucial constituency of Gilgit city, a total of 25 candidates are contesting elections but a tough contest is expected between a few heavyweights. In this constituency, former speaker and PML-N leader Jaffarullah, PPP candidate Amjad Hussain Advocate, Maulana Sultan Raees (Independent), PTI’s Johar Ali, Pakistan Rah-e-Haq Party candidate Himayat Ullah, Syed Mustafa Shah of Islami Tehreek are in the running.
A neck-and-neck contest is expected between PPP’s Amjad Advocate and Maulana Sultan Raees (Independent), who has reportedly been succeeding in getting support of some sectarian groups and religious organizations.
GBLA-2 Gilgit-II
Of a total of 25 candidates, the real contest is expected between the former chief minister and PML-N candidate, Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman and PPP candidate Jamil Ahmed.
Interestingly the PTI candidate Fateh Ullah Khan, who is also General Secretary of the party in GB, is apparently in hot water in the constituency.
Though the former chief minister GB has carried out extensive development work in this constituency, his position is reportedly weak after giving contracts of uplift works to his own blue-eyed contractors during his tenure.
GBLA-3 Gilgit-III
Here, elections have been delayed after the death of PTI President Syed Jaffer Shah, who was also the candidate in this constituency.
PTI has given this ticket to Jafar Shah’s son after the severe criticism it faced deciding to grant ticket to former minister Dr Iqabl, who deserted the PML-N and joined the PTI. Despite joining PTI formally, Dr Iqbal would be contesting the election as an independent candidate.
GBLA-4 Nagar-1
A total of 18 candidates were initially in the run in this constituency but the real contest is anticipated between PPP candidate Amjad Hussain Advocate and Muhammad Ayub Waziri of Islami Tehreek Pakistan.
GBLA-5 Nagar-II
At least 26 candidates had filed nomination papers in the constituency. However, the real fight is expected between Rizwan Ali of MWM, Javed Ali Manva (Independent), and Mirza Hussain of PPP.
GBLA -6 Hunza
PTI candidates Col (r) Abaid Ullah Baig and Noor Muhammad (Independent) are the likely winners from this. The PTI split in this constituency after the party awarded ticket Baig. Noor Muhammad therein decided to contest the elections as independent candidates.
GBLA-19 Ghizer-I
The real contest in this constituency is expected between PPP’s Syed Jalal Ali Shah, Nawaz Khan Naji (Independent), PTI’s Zafar Muhammad Shadumkhel and Shakil Ahmed (Independent). Political observers say that the PPP candidate, who is also the son of late Pir Karam Ali Shah, is expected to the sympathy votes and win.
GBLA-20 Ghizer-II
Of 12 candidates, the main contest is expected between PPP’s Ali Madad Sher, PML-Q’s Khan Akbar Khan, Fida Khan (Independent) and PML-N’s Muhammad Nazar Khan.
GBLA-21 Ghizer-III
In this constituency, the main contest is expected between PML-N’s Ghulam Muhammad, PPP’s Muhammad Ayub, PTI’s Raja Jahanzeb, Rehmat Rahim (Independent), Hafeez-ur-Rehman (Independent) and Abdul Saboor Khan (Independent).
Baltistan Division:
GBLA-7 Skardu-I
Though the position of PTI’s candidate in this constituency was weak a couple of weeks ago, the candidate has recently gained traction against the PPP candidate, the former chief minister Syed Mehdi Shah. PTI candidate Raja Muhammad Zakria has succeeded in getting some independent candidates to support him, which may help him get the seat.
GBLA-8 Skardu-II
In this constituency, the most popular candidate is reportedly from MWM, an ally of PTI. He has competition with Syed M Ali Shah of PPP and Imtiaz Haider Khan (Independent). Despite Bilawal Bhutto’s extensive campaign, the PPP candidate is unlikely to win the election in this constituency.
GBLA-9 Skardu-III
PTI candidate and former GBLA speaker Fida Muhammad Nashad and Wazir Muhammad Salem (Independent) are the leading candidates. Nashad, who has been the winner in the constituency many times, is still considered the stronger candidate.
GBLA-10 Skardi-IV
In this constituency, the main competition is expected between Raja Nasir Ali (Independent) and Wazir Hassan of PTI. The other potential candidates in the constituency are Muhammad Sikandar Ali of Islami Tehreek Pakistan, Ghulam Abbas of PML-N and Najaf Ali, Independent.
GBLA-11 Kharmang
The contest is expected to be between PTI’s Syed Amjad Ali, Syed Mohsin Rizvi (Independent), PML-N’s Shabbir Hussain, and Iqbal Hussain. In this constituency, the PTI candidate is said to have a strong vote bank.
GBLA-12 Shigar
In this constituency, a total of four candidates are in the field and the main contest is expected between PPP’s Imran Nadeem and Muhammad Azam Khan of the PTI. Imran Nadeen, according to political observers, is expected to get majority votes.
GBLA-22 Ghanche-I
The main contest here is expected between PTI’s Muhammad Ibrahim Sanai, Mushtaq Hussain (Independent) and PPP’s Muhammad Jaffer. In this constituency, the PTI candidate is tipped to win the polls.
GBLA-23 Ghanche-II
In this constituency, the main contest is expected between Amina Ansari of PTI, Ghulam Hussain of PML-N, Abdul Hameed (Independent) and Ghulam Ali Haideri of PPP. Amina has reportedly a better position after getting support from some religious scholars in the area.
GBLA-24 Ghanche-III
A total of five candidates are contesting elections in this constituency and the main contest is expected between PPP’s Muhammad Ismail, PML-Q’s Muhammad Ibrahim Taban and PTI’s Syed Shamsuddin. Being the most influential person in the constituency, Muhammad Ismail may win the election this time around.
Diamer Division:
GBLA-13 Astore-I
Of a total of 12 candidates, the main contest is between Dr Ghulam Abbas (Independent), PTI’s Khalid Khurshid, PPP’s Abdul Hameed and PML-N’s Rana Farman Ali.
GBLA-14 Astore-II
The main contests in the constituency are expected between PTI’s Shamsul Haq Lone, PML-N’s Rana Muhamad Farooq and PPP’s Muzaffar Ali Relay. The influential Gorikot Ulema Council has announced support for the PTI candidate and according to political observers, Shamul Haq Lone is expected to win elections in this constituency.
GBLA-15 Diamer-I
In this constituency, the main showdown is predicted between PPP’s Bashir Ahmed, Shah Baig (Independent) and JUI’F’s Wali-ur-Rehman. In this constituency, Thak and Niat areas have a large number of voters and the Syed Beradari’s votes are also considered crucial for any candidate to win the seat.
GBLA-16 Diamer-II
In this constituency and the main battle is expected between Eng Muhammad Anwar of PML-N, PPP’s Dilbar Khan and Attaulla (Independent) and Abdul Aziz of PML-Q. Here the PML-Q candidate, according to locals, is the strongest candidate and the Soniwal tribe has announced their support for him.
GBLA-17 Diamer-III
The main contest here is expected between Rehmat Khaliq of JUI-F, Haider Khan of PTI and Muhammad Zaman (Independent). The PTI candidate is said to have a slight edge over his rivals in this constituency.
GBLA-18 Diamer-IV
The main tussle is expected between Malik Kifayat-ur-Rehman (Independent), PTI’s Gulbar Khan, JUI-F’s Abdur Rasheed and PPP’s Sadia Danish. In this constituency, Malik Kifayat-ur-Rehman is said to have a strong vote bank and he is also backed by the PML-N.
