- The killing of General Soleimani could move the region towards war
The killing by a US drone strike of Maj Gen Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Guard Corps’ Quds Force, could be a Sarajevo moment unless all the world’s powers step back from the brink. The sorry tale began when a US contractor was killed by an Iran-backed militia near Kirkuk in a rocket attack. The militia was bombed mercilessly by the USA. That was followed by a 24-hour siege of the US Embassy in Baghdad by pro-Iranian militias, which ended on Wednesday afternoon, when the militias withdrew. The USA, it appears, took its revenge on General Soleimani. However, the resemblance in the 1914 assassination of Austria’s heir presumptive, the Archduke Ferdinand, in Sarajevo, is unmistakable. That set off World War I. This assassination has set off alarm bells worldwide, as the USA (and Israel) prepare for retaliation by Iranian and pro-Iranian forces. As the USA and its Gulf allies on one side, and the USA on the other, are teetering on the brink in the Persian Gulf, this just could be the incident that sets off a conflict, just as much as killing of the Archduke Ferdinand set Europe on the path to war.
General Soleimani’s killing is enough of a reason for Iran to go to war because he was perhaps more important than his rank suggested. The USA held him responsible for the moves being made against the USA by Iran, and it is possible that Iran may not be able to retaliate without provoking war. As Commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, he was responsible for foreign operations, including the propping up of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria, which included giving Russia r role there.
Pakistan finds itself one step closer to being drawn into the vortex of Gulf politics, which it has avoided so far. It is danger of finding itself on the anti-Iranian side in any conflict, not just because of its increasing closeness to the Gulf, but also because of US pressure on it. Unfortunately, one reason for its ties with Iran, that it is a neighbour with a long border, makes it attractive as a military ally against Iran. Then there is a Shia population in Pakistan, which would be alienated by a conflict with it.
