A considerable overhaul
Even if calling it a make-or-break year — as some ‘senior analysts’ are implying — might be going too far, 2017 will still be crucial for Pakistan. The number one issue going in will, of course, be the Panama leaks fallout. A government neck-deep in politics of survival, and always wriggling to avoid the axe, is hardly in the best position to govern to the best of its ability. And an opposition with little to do except making corruption charges stick on the government will never be able to play its mandated parliamentary role. So moving past Panama will be essential, and the sooner the better for all parties concerned (and the people), especially since election campaigning is also effectively underway.
Once the prime minister finds some breathing space, he will notice how much he has ignored his own adopted role of foreign minister. The equation with India has been heading south for quite a while. The Afghans have been bitter since forever. The Americans, too, have been particularly discontented pretty much throughout ’16 and there’s no telling where the chips are going to fall once the new unpredictable president takes over. Already Islamabad has been singled out for the failure of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG). Now, with the Chinese and Russians involving us in another bid to end war in the region, the government will have to brush up its game to avoid further isolation.
And then there’s the economy. Things have been calm for a good couple of years now, especially since the international Brent crude collapse that helped lower inflation and control the deficit at home. But now, with opec controlling supplies to jack up prices, the environment should begin to change well in time for the election. Also, a timely remittance bulge has helped in this fiscal, but there’s no telling how much pressure the deficit could suddenly come under if earnings of overseas Pakistanis are cramped like a couple of years ago. On the whole, ’16 was more or less about holding it together. The new year will have to be about making it better. And Pakistan needs an overhaul in a number of departments.
