Russia presses towards Kostiantynivka as fighting reaches key eastern Ukrainian stronghold

KYIV: Russian forces are pushing deeper towards Kostiantynivka, a key Ukrainian position in the eastern Donetsk region, with fighting now beginning to spill into the city itself as Moscow focuses on a defensive line that has long been central to Kyiv’s hold on the area.

Kostiantynivka is the southernmost of four important settlements that form what Ukrainian officials and analysts describe as a fortress belt in the heavily industrialised Donetsk region. While Russian advances along much of the 1,200-kilometre front have largely slowed, senior Ukrainian commanders said last week that small Russian assault groups had started trying to slip into the city’s outskirts, raising the prospect of closer urban combat.

Control of Kostiantynivka would give Russian troops a base to push north along the defensive line, which has become the main direction of their campaign. Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that Russia was close to taking the city. Ukrainian commanders from Kyiv’s 19th Army Corps rejected that assessment in comments to Ukrainian media, describing it as overstated and saying their forces were eliminating Russian groups that had managed to get in.

Putin has said Russia must take all of Donetsk before the war ends. Ukraine still controls about one-fifth of the region after more than four years of fighting. The city itself has been emptied by the war, with its population dropping from nearly 70,000 before the conflict to about 2,000.

Pressure building on Ukraine’s defence line

Maj Gen Viktor Nikoliuk, head of Ukraine’s eastern operational command, told Ukraine’s public broadcaster on Thursday that Kostiantynivka could continue to hold at the present level of manpower and supplies. But the broader position is becoming more difficult. The US-based Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment dated June 23 that Russian infiltration efforts were worsening the tactical situation for Ukraine, though they did not amount to a fast operational breakthrough.

Ukrainian analyst Ruslan Mykula of the DeepState open-source mapping group said Russian attempts to surround the city with pincer movements were steadily increasing the cost to Kyiv of defending it. He said:

"A choice will have to be made: either raise the stakes or withdraw,"

He added:

“And right now, the situation is such that the stakes are rising with each passing day.”

Emil Kastehelmi of the Black Bird conflict analysis team in Finland said Ukrainian medium-range drone strikes on Russian logistics had caused damage, but not enough to halt Moscow’s attacks.

"The effect [of mid-range strikes] hasn’t been so great that it would have forced the Russians to suspend their offensive,"

He continued “So even though Russia has been taking increasingly heavy losses in the rear, they are still able to continue their offensives, at least in certain sectors.”

Kastehelmi also said the fall of Kostiantynivka appeared to be more a matter of timing than possibility.

Supply routes under attack

Russian troops are also pressing on the northern edge of the same defensive belt, putting Sloviansk and Kramatorsk under regular air and drone attack from positions about 15 kilometres away. Ukrainian soldiers in the area said supply lines were already under constant pressure, with artillery, drones and guided bombs striking infrastructure on the road north from Kostiantynivka.

Reuters accompanied members of the Predator rifle brigade under Ukraine’s National Police, tasked with patrolling the exposed route against drones and remotely dropped mines. Fibre-optic cables used to steer first-person-view drones were described as lying across anti-drone netting stretched over the road, while unmanned ground vehicles now deliver food, water and other supplies through what soldiers referred to as a kill zone.

Thirty-four-year-old serviceman Oleksandr Kosmin said the route was too dangerous for ordinary vehicles evacuating casualties. He said "Everything happens on foot."

Civilians leaving as front nears

The fighting is also disrupting civilian life in nearby towns. In Druzhkivka, about 12 kilometres north of Kostiantynivka, residents are leaving as the front moves closer. On one street, a husband and wife were found dead inside a van hit by a Russian drone, with white ribbons still attached to the vehicle to mark it as civilian.

Larysa Sereda, 59, speaking from a police evacuation van, said fear of drones had forced her to leave, though she intended to return.

"Why am I leaving? Because I’m scared. Drones are flying,"

She added “But I plan to return home. I don’t want to stay in some strange place. The war will end, and I’ll come home.”

Strain on Russia’s war effort

Russia’s gains around Kostiantynivka have come despite increasing pressure on its military campaign from Ukrainian attacks on supply routes linked to Crimea and from longer-range strikes on Russia’s oil sector.

Authorities installed by Russia in occupied Crimea have declared a state of emergency to address economic problems and suspended all fuel sales to individuals and businesses. Mykula said Russian forces appeared overstretched more broadly, with some frontline attacks involving only one or two soldiers.

Denis Pushilin, the Kremlin-installed head of the Donetsk region, told Reuters that Russia’s effort to seize more cities was continuing.

"Talking about whether this is happening slowly or quickly isn’t really the point,"

At the same time, Russian hardliners have been urging Putin to walk away from the US-backed peace process and intensify the war as Ukrainian strikes, including those reaching Moscow, continue to grow.