PM in China

After Hangzhou, PM reaches Beijing

After arriving in Hangzhou on Saturday, and spending the day there, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his entourage moved on to Beijing on Sunday, where he will engage in some weighty conversation about the Iran situation. In Hangzhou it was entirely business. But now in Beijing, while discussions are still expected to include a business component as Mr Sharif and President Xi Jinping talk about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, as well as review the initiatives taken in Hangzhou, but there will be a natural focus on the USA and Israel\s attack on Iran. Apart from the usual dimensions of the results for both countries of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, there will also be a discussion of the mediation efforts both countries are making.

While Pakistan has a more direct role, being the principal go-between the USA and Iran, China has also been visited by all of the stakeholders except Israel. Not only have the UAE and Iranian Foreign Ministers visited Beijing, but so has US President Donald Trump only recently, while followed virtually immediately after by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Some have gone as far as to say that China is acting in the matter through Pakistan. Though that is perhaps too great a leap, it does contain a kernel of truth that while no one’s catspaw, Pakistan has no intention of acting in a way that might harm China’s interests. In this matter, they mainly centre around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of the flow of oil to normal. The two countries might gain a clearer perception after comparing notes of what is possible and what not. If indeed China is acting through Pakistan, that is because Pakistan has developed the sort of profile that makes it acceptable, in its own right, as a mediator.

The challenges of mediation aside, the two countries have also got a lot of shared economic profile that requires frequent consultation. Another important aspect of the tour is the meeting at the party level of stakeholders in the CPEC. This will insulate CPEC, and China, from the kind of policy paralysis that Pakistan has made the hallmark of its democracy. The idea of an economic consensus among political parties, comprising a pledge to certain policies and projects has long been around. Now, it seems, China is seeking to build that consensus.