Debate resurfaces over possible new constitutional package

ISLAMABAD: Discussion over another possible constitutional package has returned to Pakistan’s political arena, with talk of a potential 28th Constitutional Amendment circulating despite official denials that any formal process is under way.

The renewed debate follows the passage of the 26th and 27th Constitutional Amendments. A similar pattern had emerged before the 26th amendment in September 2024, when reports based on leaks were publicly dismissed by the government before the proposal was later acknowledged and passed by parliament.

At the centre of the latest discussion is the long-running fiscal imbalance between the federation and the provinces, particularly the dispute over the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award. The issue has regained attention as federal spending continues to rise, especially on debt servicing and defence, reviving questions about revenue distribution and fiscal space.

Analysts said the debate reflects structural strains within Pakistan’s fiscal federal system rather than evidence of an imminent constitutional move. They noted that constitutionally protected provincial shares exist alongside a federal government facing financial pressure.

Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar said there are no indications of a draft 28th amendment. He also said that any future constitutional initiative would require consultation with coalition partners. His remarks also referred to policy discussions on population management, strengthening local governments, and long-debated proposals for new provinces, including Hazara and Saraiki regions.

Pakistan Peoples Party Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said his party had not been consulted on any such proposal and reiterated that constitutional amendments could not move forward without the PPP’s agreement.

Prime Minister’s aide Rana Sanaullah, meanwhile, acknowledged that discussions with the PPP were taking place in policy circles on fiscal constraints and burden-sharing between the federation and provinces, driven by rising debt servicing and defence expenditures. His comments indicated that while no formal process exists, economic pressures continue to shape policy conversations.

Opposition parties have also sought clarity from the government. PTI information secretary Sheikh Waqas Akram said the party’s position reflects its character as a national party. He said PTI supports balanced resource distribution and considers a review of the NFC Award necessary. He added that the 7th NFC Award, formed after the 18th Constitutional Amendment, was not properly reviewed after its term expired and has instead been extended each year through presidential ordinances.

Parliamentary numbers remain a key hurdle

Any constitutional amendment would require a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament. In the National Assembly, that means at least 224 votes, while in the Senate the threshold is 64 votes.

Under the current parliamentary composition, no single party has the numbers to pass such a measure on its own. Even the major coalition partners together would still need backing from smaller parties and independents to meet the constitutional requirement.

Analyst Mazhar Abbas said he does not rule out the possibility of a government surprise package, although he described the current discussion as speculative and said political bargaining could not be excluded.

He said a complete reversal of the 18th Amendment appears unlikely, but some room for negotiated changes may still exist, even if the idea of a 28th amendment remains largely speculative for now.

Pildat Chairman Ahmed Bilal Mehboob said several parts of the PML-N’s legislative agenda remain unresolved and could reappear in any future constitutional package, especially proposals related to local government strengthening and fiscal arrangements. He added that ideas linked to NFC changes and new provinces remain politically sensitive and would require broad agreement, particularly from the PPP, which he said has historically opposed such moves.

He further noted that the constitutional route for creating new provinces is highly complicated, as it requires two-thirds support in the relevant provincial assemblies, making such proposals difficult to realise in the near future.