Neither war nor peace

The Trump-Xi meeting produced no major surprises

The long-awaited meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping took place at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, as Mr Trump embarked on his first visit to China. The relations between the two countries were supposed to be at the centre of the meeting. After all, Mr Trump was the one who founded the.alarm that China was now vying to replace the USA as global superpower. However, there have been developments since, in particular the Iran conflict. This dominated the discussions between the two men, though nothing that could be described as a breakthrough took place on this or any other issue.

The Iran conflict, it might be remembered, was started by the USA, but the main cause of concern has been the disruption in the oil supply, mainly to the Far East, including China. Mr Trump claimed to have Chinese assurance that it would not provide Iran with any more weaponry, as well as having a desire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure has become a global problem. However, Mr Xi did raise the issue of Taiwan, and Mr Trump duly told him that US policy remained unchanged. However, the success of Iran in resisting the USA, with China’s help, has raised the possibility of China defying the USA’s guarantee of Taiwan’s independence. For this reason, the military confrontation between the USA and Iran has been of great interest to China, whose backing of Iran, albeit covert, has turned the conflict into a proxy war against the USA. Mr XI also said later at the banquet he hosted for Mr Trump that he hoped the Thucydides Trap, in which a rising superpower goes to war with the one that is already of that status, could be avoided. He said the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and making America great again can go hand in hand.”

Trade discussions being pursued in North Korea tend in that direction, and China seems to want to address Mr Trump’s focus on the US trade deficit with China by purchasing Boeing aeroplanes, as well as buying oil (to diversify from the Middle East and Hormuz), as well as farm goods. Clearly, the USA still sees China as a market for primary goods, not understanding that now it can compete in the most sophisticated goods.