Air pollution, Middle East conflict, mission-oriented approach

Austerity policies are only making things worse

Winter has just passed, but most likely not the seriously negative impact on human health of smog, which has become a serious health hazard over the last two decades. Bloomberg in its March 26 published article ‘Global air quality worsened in 2025 and poses threat to growth’ highlighted a recently released report by ‘IQAir Group’ and pointed out ‘Global air quality declined in 2025, with more cities reporting standards below international health guidelines on the impact of severe wildfires and pollution from sectors including fossil fuels and agriculture. Data from almost 9,500 cities showed 14% met World Health Organization standards for annual average concentrations of harmful fine-particle matter, or PM2.5, according to a report released Tuesday by IQAir Group. That compared to a total of 17% a year earlier when nearly 9,000 cities were surveyed.’

As per the report, the highest level of air pollution, in terms of concentration of PM2.5 particles was recorded in Pakistan, and Bangladesh in 2025, whereas according to the article ‘PM2.5 is regarded as a greater risk to human health than larger particulates because the matter can embed deep into the lungs and cause inflammation, heightening the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory disease, and cancers. Children exposed to air pollution can suffer permanent respiratory damage.’

Moreover, in terms of most polluted cities, the report, as highlighted in the article, indicated that the top most polluted city in 2025 was Loni (India) with 112.5 PM2.5 concentration, followed by Hotan (China) at 109.6, Byrnihat (India) at 101.1, Delhi (India) at 99.6, Faisalabad (Pakistan) at 98.8, Rahim Yar Khan (Pakistan) at 92.6, Ghaziabad (Pakistan) at 89.2, and Lahore (Pakistan) at 88.9. 

Hence, half of the top eight most polluted cities globally were from Pakistan. Yet, there does not seem to be any mission-oriented nature of approach to deal with this situation, which has been produced over the last number of years. On the contrary, the country has overall gone through acute level of austerity– or aggregate demand squeeze policies– which means that there is both high cost of capital (monetary austerity), and lack of public investment, especially due to sharp fiscal consolidation, or fiscal austerity conditionalities being implemented under the two IMF programmes– the previous standby arrangement (SBA), and the ongoing extended fund facility (EFF) programme– since most time during the last four years or so. 

This, otherwise wrongly overboard austerity policies, when inflation is at least equally a fiscal phenomenon in general for developing countries like Pakistan, and is all the more supply-side phenomenon in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, two major floods caused apparently climate change crisis, and more recently the Middle East conflict.

This approach has also likely diluted the impact of an otherwise quite limited programme to start with, in the shape of resilience and sustainability facility (RSF) programme, to overall enhance country’s resilience, in terms of ambition, and financing envelope– as compared to EFF programme for instance– by overboard austerity policies of the EFF programme, reducing the investment potential to enhance resilience, and put the economy on more sustainable footing.

Global economic vulnerability, especially for net oil importing countries like Pakistan, due to the Middle East conflict caused oil supply, and price shocks, emphasize the need to move from fossil fuel dependence for energy needs at the earliest possible; not to mention the dire consequences countries in general are facing in terms of air pollution, and overall climate change crisis.

On the contrary, unlike Pakistan, which has not adopted much purpose-driven, mission-oriented strategy to deal with air pollution, China has been much more focused, both in terms of policy intervention; not to mention the much more mission-oriented approach being adopted by China to deal with the climate change crisis, for instance by being a leader in tapping solar energy, along with being a huge producer of solar panels. 

For instance, a February 25, Bloomberg published article ‘China to tighten air quality rules that have helped slash smog’ pointed out ‘China is planning its first major tightening of national air quality standards since 2012, as it seeks to extend a largely successful anti-pollution campaign that’s reshaped parts of its economy. New limits on a range of pollutants will be phased in from March and strengthened further in 2031, according to documents posted online by the country’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment. The stricter rules are intended to reduce health risks, support the ambition of “building a beautiful China” and align the nation with international best practice, the ministry said in a Tuesday statement. …New standards to be fully implemented from Jan. 1, 2031 will limit average annual levels of PM2.5 per cubic meter to 25 micrograms in most locations. That compares with a current annual limit of 35 micrograms. Interim standards from March will set an annual limit of 30 micrograms. PM2.5 are the fine particles that can be inhaled deep into the lungs, or even enter the bloodstream.’

Although, still higher than what is recommended, as the same article pointed out in this regard ‘Still, China’s new limits remain weaker than guidance issued in 2021 by the World Health Organization, which recommends an annual average PM2.5 limit of 5 micrograms and a 24-hour limit of 15 micrograms.’ Having said, the article highlighted recognition for much more effort needed in this regard, by highlighting the comment of ‘Ma Jun, founder of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, a Beijing-based nonprofit’ as follows: “The mission is far from being accomplished, we’ve got to recognize that,” Ma said.’ That high sense of urgency, and purpose needs to be reflected in other countries, like Pakistan, which suffers from significant level of air pollution overall.

Last but not the least, global economic vulnerability, especially for net oil importing countries like Pakistan, due to the Middle East conflict caused oil supply, and price shocks, emphasize the need to move from fossil fuel dependence for energy needs at the earliest possible; not to mention the dire consequences countries in general are facing in terms of air pollution, and overall climate change crisis. 

With regard to the consequence of the Middle East conflict on air pollution, a March 23, the Bloomberg published article ‘Middle East war spurs emissions from oil and gas sites, satellites show’ pointed out ‘The conflict in the Middle East appears to have forced some oil and gas companies to directly burn off more natural gas than usual as their facilities have come under attack or exports have been blocked, releasing planet-warming pollution. …From Feb. 28 to March 22, the United Arab Emirates’ Das Island liquefied natural gas plant flared enough to add the equivalent of about 74,100 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, according to analysis by investigative consultancy Data Desk and Bloomberg calculations. Meanwhile, Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, the world’s largest LNG export hub, added roughly 101,300 tons of CO2 equivalent, on par with the annual emissions from more than 20,000 cars. …The emissions open a new window into the conflict’s growing carbon footprint, revealing how greenhouse gases can spike when fossil fuel infrastructure is targeted.’