New World Order

Shaped by the Aamerica-First doctrine

The New World Order is no longer a concept among scholars and academicians but an emerging reality. Today, it is no longer theoretical, but unfolding in real time, which is shaped by the America First doctrine of Trump’s administration.

The America First policy marked a decisive turning point in global politics. America First is the defining doctrine of Donald Trump’s foreign policy, rooted in economic nationalism and strategic retrenchment. It prioritized domestic industry, border security, and trade protectionism over multilateral cooperation.

For instance, Washington has withdrawn from 66 international organizations. This includes significant organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). According to White House, these 66 organizations were operating contrary to US national interests, security, economic prosperity, or sovereignty. Moreover, Washington has pressured NATO allies to increase defence spending. These policies are making the USA less influential in global power than China, which was silently working to get all the benefits.

A number of states perceive that their strategic and economic interests are being undermined within their alliances with the United States. This prompted States to recalibrate their foreign policies and strengthen relations with China. Consequently, the new emerging world order should not be regarded as fixed; this would also be subject to shifts in national interests and strategic calculations. In international relations, alignments are inherently dynamic. States that have distanced themselves from the USA, May, in time, realign as their interests evolve

The America First policy has made its long-term allies start improving their relations with China as a backup plan. In mid-January 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited China, marking the first visit by a Canadian leader in years. Carney’s four-day visit to Beijing was to expand the trade partnership with China. During the visit, both states struck an initial trade deal, slashing 100 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to the most favorable tariff rate of 6.1 percent, while China plans to lower tariffs on its canola seed by March 1, to a combined rate of about 15 percent from the current 84 percent. This visit has been marked as the most significant visit as Canada has been a long-term ally of the USA. Canada used to be the second largest trade partner of the USA. Both had signed a free trade agreement, NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in 1994, which has been key in shaping the strong US-Canada relationship. But after the recent imposition of tariffs on Canadian products by the Trump Administration, the tensions between the two States have arisen. 

Another setback to Washington was UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Beijing at the end of January 2026. This was the first visit by a UK leader to China in seven years. The UK Prime Minister’s visit was accompanied by a 60-member delegation of Britain’s biggest businesses and cultural organizations. During the meeting with President Xi Jinping, both leaders affirmed their shared commitment to building a consistent, long-term, and strategic partnership that will benefit both countries. This visit came after Donald Trump’s threat to take Greenland, while European nations have condemned Trump’s statements. The condemnation by Europe resulted in fresh tariffs imposed by the USA. This action made Europe realize it should have a backup market. 

Trump’s aggressive policy stance could lead to substantial economic repercussions for the US economy. In January, Trump imposed a 10 percent tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland, which would take effect on February 1. This rate would rise to 25 percent in June unless those countries agree to talks over the sale of the territory.

During the meeting between European Union leaders on January 19, French President Emmanuel Macron urged the European Union to prepare for the use of the trade Bazooka. It is an anti-coercion instrument (ACI) created by the European Union in 2023 to deter and respond to economic pressure from foreign governments. The ACI allows the EU to impose measures such as restricting trade, investment, and funding. It can include actions like blocking access to markets, suspending intellectual property rights, and banning the distribution of digital services. If EU used this toolkit against the U.S., it would give the biggest setback to the US economy. In 2024, European Union states imported $371.1 billion worth of products from the USA.

This changing world order reminds us of 19th century British PM Lord Palmerston’s theory of Permanent Interests. Lord Palmerston famously asserted that states have no permanent friends or foes, only permanent interests.  This principle appears increasingly relevant in the contemporary international system.

A number of states perceive that their strategic and economic interests are being undermined within their alliances with the United States. This prompted States to recalibrate their foreign policies and strengthen relations with China. Consequently, the new emerging world order should not be regarded as fixed; this would also be subject to shifts in national interests and strategic calculations. In international relations, alignments are inherently dynamic. States that have distanced themselves from the USA, May, in time, realign as their interests evolve. 

The writer is a research intern at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, She can be reached at [email protected]