One Thing After Another

Pakistan in the middle

AT PENPOINT

The Trump Peace Plan moved forward with the Gaza Peace Plan with the inaugural meeting of the Gaza Board of Peace, which was more a chance for sideline summiteering and photo-ops rather than a forum to decide the fate of Gaza, where no important decisions were taken, but members made their positions clear.

Perhaps the most arresting statement was by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said there would be no reconstruction of Gaza until  Hamas was disarmed. Meanwhile, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, basking in the praise Trump showered on him, said that Pakistani troops forming part of the International Stabilisation Force would not take part in the disarming of Hamas fighters. Another thing that Shehbaz said was that Pakistan had joined the Board to seek a Palestinian state, an obvious reference to the two-state solution agreed in the Camp David Accords between the PLO’s Yasser Arafat and right-wing Israeli PM Menachem Begin. However, Israel and thus the USA has been veering away from the two-state solution towards the Greater Israel solution, in which the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip are absorbed by Israel.

Therefore, the Pakistani participation in the Board of Peace has led to domestic political opposition because it seems to help the USA attain its goals; well not so much the USA, as Israel. Israel had proved unable to disarm Hamas by force, so now it seems as if it is to seek help from the International Stabilization Force. It is worth noting that there has been no definition of what constitutes disarmament. Hamas is apparently preparing for the new situation by electing a leadership, including the head of the political bureau, a post which the Israelis have vacated twice by assassination.

Bagram may be attractive superficially, but it is not really a good option. It does show how Trump is getting himself embroiled in wars with two countries in the Greater Middle East. the drum beating aside, much will depend on the casualties that the USA suffers. Is the American public willing to sacrifice its children for Reza Cyrus?

The ISF is closer to formation, though it is not clear how far that process has gone, with the ISF chief, a US major general, saying that five countries have made troop commitments, while the second-in-command is to be an Indonesian officer. Pakistan has not yet contributed any troops, with Shehbaz speaking frankly about Pakistani reservations. These included the authority it would operate under, and the command structure.

One of the problems that it seems everyone has with the Board of Peace is how far it follows Trump’s suggestion that it could eventually address challenges beyond Gaza, which seems an undermining of the United Nations, a body which Trump clearly distrusts, particularly because it has taken what he sees as an anti-Israeli position. His desire for a more pro-Israeli body seems to manifest itself in the Board of Peace, which puts countries like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in something of a bind.

This has been revealed by the controversy which has resulted from the recent interview of US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, who said that Israel should annex more Arab land. This had led to loud squawking by other US allies, with the OIC, the GCC and the Arab League (all Saudi-dominated organizations) all condemning it. Huckabee remains at his post, and the nearest the US government has come to condemnation is to say that his remarks were taken out of context. The widespread condemnation by Muslim countries must be seen in the context of the feeling in the street, which has not overcome memory of the massacre in Gaza.

Even as the Israeli conquest of Gaza has not yet come to an end, the USA is planning what will be another challenge for the Board of Peace. The USA, according to most estimates, has gone too far with its military deployments in the Arabian Sea to pull back without Iran accepting a humiliating surrender. It has shifted two aircraft carrier groups to the area, which gives it the kind of airpower that not all air forces have. This is not to underestimate the Air Force itself, which can carry B1 and B2 strikes from as far away as Europe, not to mention the bases the USA has in the region, which include al-Udeid Air Base in Qaatar (the forward HQ of CENTCOM), and naval bases in Bahrain, Jordan and the UAE, along with other bases in Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria.

However, it may not all be one-sided, as Iran has been preparing for this conflict for some time, and is likely to launch asymmetric attacks on warships, as well as missiles and drones against bases. So far, the USA seems to have trapped itself into the fault Israel committed in Gaza: unclear war aims.

Just as Israel wanted to change the Hamas government in Gaza, the USA wants to replace the Iranian government, Both countries had the problem of not being sure what they wanted to replace them with. All Israel hopes is that it can impose a kind of Palestinian Authority administration, not in the form of the PA itself, but by a Board-approved administrator who has been a senior figure in the PA.

Similarly, the USA in Iran is not really sure who it wants to replace the regime. It is hoped that the US bombing of the country would cause the people of Iran to rise up against their government. But replace it with whom? The presence of Raza Cyrus Pahlavi is eerily similar to that of Ahmad Chalabi in Iraq. Initially the American candidate, in the end nowhere. Similarly, Afghan ex-King Zahir Shah was a candidate for the replacement of the Taliban, but Hamid0 Karzai was plucked from his Washington restaurant and made President. Results are mixed: Iraqis have elected their own PM, and the Taliban are back in Kabul. Trump has got into an ancillary dispute, speaking against pro-Iranian Nour Al-Maliki, who is vying for the PM’s slot, which he has held before. Raza Cyrus is probably not going to be the shoo-in some see him as. His promise to to try for a nuclear weapon is ironic. Before the 1979 Revolution, one of the fears was that his father would obtain a nuclear weapon and use it on Saudi oilfields, making them unusable for centuries.

Apart from his being 65, another issue is that he has no sons, only three daughters. Of them, only one is married, to an American. His only brother Reza Ali died in 2011 without issue, though he does have three sisters. One has died, and the rest do not have children.

One of the fears is that Iran might blockade the Hormuz Straits, which would send the price of oil beyond $130 a barrel. Already the escalation in the area has caused oil prices to rise. Even before it has fully tackled the Gaza situation, the Board of Peace is likely to have another Mid-East crisis on its hands. Because of the Board’s structure, it will require conversion if it is to perform the kind of role the USA wants.

Will Pakistan be as willing to assist the USA in its designs on Iran? Will it be as compliant with its wishes? It is not without significance that Pakistan is finding itself increasingly embroiled with Afghanistan at a time when the USA feels the need for Bagram Air Base the most. Pakistan has done and said nothing to indicate that it will help in such an enterprise, but US carrier-based aircraft and US Navy Seals may be able to achieve the taking of Bagram Air Base, which could then be used against Iranian targets. Pakistan would probably react as it did to the USA’s 9/11 invasion of Afghanistan, though this time logistical support may not be required.

Pakistan has to decide how much it needs US goodwill. So far, it has been ready to ‘do what it takes.’ However, if US goodwill can be won only by help against Iran, it might have a problem. Worse, Iran is about near enough for India to help. That is a bogey Pakistan might not like raised.

Bagram may be attractive superficially, but it is not really a good option. It does show how Trump is getting himself embroiled in wars with two countries in the Greater Middle East. the drum beating aside, much will depend on the casualties that the USA suffers. Is the American public willing to sacrifice its children for Reza Cyrus?