- Or, how not to make a jackass of oneself
The number of analysts who feel that they must predict the future to establish their credentials was never higher. Some of them have become compulsive forecasters because they believe (with some justification) that unless they foretell something dramatic, nobody will pay them any heed. While the sensible types still don’t listen to them (unless it is for entertainment purposes), they manage to attract an audience even if it consists only of the crowd that is happy merely contemplating the outcome predicted by them. This demographic is not insignificant in number, so it is a smart strategy, provided you have the talents of a Shahid Masood, an Orya Maqbool Jan or a Javed Chaudhry. That is a tough ask, which drastically limits the number of successful practitioners of the art.
Unfortunately, this has been lost on our aspiring writers, more and more of whom are thinking it a good idea to constantly play Nostradamus. The Urdu part of the media is especially affected – every third political article in newspapers, and every second one on popular websites publishing opinion pieces, belongs to the ‘forecasting’ category. It would make an exciting PhD thesis for some energetic youth aspiring to a career as a shopkeeper to sift the hundreds of predictions made, say in 2015, coming up with the one or two that came true.
It is not that forecasting is not a part of political analysis – it most certainly is. The point is: it is a difficult science. Lesser souls, for the sake of their own legacies, are advised caution and restraint. Not becoming the butt of all your friends’ jokes is a plus too. Here, I may be accused of being too tough on those who are brave enough to go out on a ledge and stick their necks out. I am not. I firmly believe that with the notable exception of wives, it is impossible for anybody to be always right on everything. So, nobody is demanding 100% accuracy from anybody. It is only that you must learn to ration your predictions if none of them ever come true.
This political forecasting business is a free-for-all, no-holds-barred, unregulated mess. No industry can survive without rules and regulations, for in the long run they are in its own self-interest. I realize that most of the professionals are beyond reform. I am more concerned about the amateur: the occasional writer and the drawing-room analyst who has taken it upon himself to be constantly gazing into the crystal ball, so to speak. Consider one such specimen: Oft-times he is merely parroting the prediction he heard on TV last night and is hoping that others did not watch the program (which they did, lazy slugs that they are). Sometimes he has successfully convinced himself that what he has heard from so many quarters so many times is his own analysis, which points to only one conclusion: the one he thinks he is putting forward.
Ambiguous statements with fancy catchphrases cannot be accepted as predictions either. For example: system tabah, game over, Inna lillah type things. Do not compound ignorance with ambiguity. If you insist on predicting the future, you should have more courage than having to hedge your bets. Better still, recall that discretion is the better part of valour.
Which brings us to our first point: somebody else’s predictions are not your predictions. It is not only immoral to steal somebody else’s prediction but is usually prudent too. Judging by the quality of pundits here, the chances are that he will make a fool of himself. Why throw in your lot with his?
Secondly, a ‘prediction’ without a time frame is no prediction at all. I can predict (with confidence) that Saru, the monkey at the local zoo will die, but that is not a prediction. We are all going to die, except Bhutto of course. Recall the ‘pundits’ who used to predict the premature end of the Zardari era every week without fail, and how their perseverance bore fruit as they were finally vindicated when Zardari had to leave the President’s House at the end of his term. Do not be the ‘uncle’ who used to send the telegram: ‘Tomorrow station’ making the nephew to wait all day at the station wondering which train it was going to be. That old man was being charged by the letter; you have no such problem. Provide a timeline. Better yet, desist altogether.
Ambiguous statements with fancy catchphrases cannot be accepted as predictions either. For example: system tabah, game over, Inna lillah type things. Do not compound ignorance with ambiguity. If you insist on predicting the future, you should have more courage than having to hedge your bets. Better still; recall that discretion is the better part of valour.
Another big no-no is the prediction based on poetry done hundreds of years ago. Poetry uses symbols, and by giving those symbols my preferred meanings I can easily make a 16th century Sufi-poet to ‘predict’ that Jaaneman will tank at the box-office.
There is another popular mode of prediction that I refer to as the ‘If… Then’ type (a variant is the ‘Unless…’ type). ‘After all the errors he has committed, it is certainly going to be the end of politician A unless he plays all his remaining cards exceptionally well’ is an example. Like a tautology, this sort of ‘prediction’ is always true. The cynical thought process behind it is that the downfall, if it happens, has successfully been predicted; but if it doesn’t happen, one can always say that the remaining cards were played exceptionally well (this proviso was there all along). I hope you are better than this, although all bets are off.
Some analysts, wary of their predictions never coming true, have another trick up their sleeve. They resort to the ‘safer’ technique of announcing how history (or the proverbial historian) will judge this or that politician. All that can be said about this is that history will hardly need their input before judging their favourite politician (and the one that they detest). Also, nobody among us will be alive when the proverbial historian will decide to sit down and write history. The person who comes up with such statements predicts nothing. The only thing he does is sound rather foolish.
All things considered, foretelling the future is a temptation best resisted. Stick to the present or, even better, the past. It is much easier to predict the past correctly. In case even that proves a handful, and you do it as a pastime anyway, let me suggest other avocations. Take up Croquet, for example. One hears it is an excellent sport that is in equal parts exercise and social interaction. The more disciplined souls have even been observed reading books while in the middle of a championship final. You can play it till you are ninety or dead, whichever comes first. I am not predicting which.
