- The study seems ill informed
By: Farhad Shahid
The first of the Thar coal power projects and associated mines were commissioned in July 2019 as priority national projects, and since then have been fulfilling the requirement of base load power generation– which is the minimum level of demand on an electrical grid over a span of time. The supply of electricity to th national grid from Thar is a significant achievement given that it provides an indigenous fuel resource and curtails our reliance on foreign fuel.
Thar Coal, discovered in 1992 and the worlds seventhth largest coal reserves, can generate up to 100,000MW of electricity for many decades. Pakistan remained indebted to imported energy fuel sources whereas the Thar coal project remained dormant for almost two decades, resulting in chronic power shortage, expensive electricity, substantial forex outflow for imported fuels and loss of GDP. In this backdrop and carrying the burden of hope of 220 million Pakistanis, the project developers took a leap of faith and laid the foundation for indigenous, affordable and economical power, providing much needed energy security to the country. The cluster of power projects and mines in Tharparkar are not only a pioneering project for Pakistan but also present a model for a successful public-private partnership where the role of the federal and Sindh governments cannot be understated in providing the ancillary services needed to complete the projects on time as early-harvest projects of the CPEC initiative.
The report, titled ‘Air quality, health and toxic impacts of the proposed coal mining and power cluster in Thar, Pakistan’ issued by Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, however, does not take into account the complete environmental, economic and social aspects of the projects. It is important to highlight that the mine and coal-fired power projects have been designed, developed and are being executed and operated under all applicable regulatory environmental guidelines. Based on the studies conducted by reputable international consultants, these projects were designed to comply not only with the Sindh Environmental Quality Standards (SEQS) as a mandatory requirement but also voluntarily are compliant with IFC emission and air quality standards.
Is this report another targeted attempt to malign and hijack the country’s attempt to secure its energy mix by utilizing its indigenous energy sources and make it remain subservient to the international fuel lobby? The current covid-19 pandemic has already exposed vulnerability of countries depending on imported energy sources and the need for developing indigenous energy resources in countries like Pakistan cannot be overlooked.
Moreover, monitoring of air quality from nearby villages and areas (conducted by independent monitoring consultants) also show minimal incremental impact of emissions which are within allowable limits. Despite this, continued studies are being undertaken by the project developers to understand the long-term impact on the air quality in and around the projects while ensuring use of best available control technologies and operational excellence so that all such emissions remain well within the provincial, national and IFC limits.
Moving on to the research conducted by the authors the report claims that the cluster of Thar coal-fired power plants could expose around 100,000 people to harmful emissions exceeding safe limits and 29,000 people could allegedly die from air-pollution-related causes over the 30-year operating life of the plants. These claims and analyses are based on just one desktop study, using predictive numbers and data models not been tested or validated by actual Thar data. The first of the power plants was commissioned just 10 months ago and hence a proper health impact assessment needs to be done to determine the on-ground effects of emissions. The study does not present any definitive data on what health assessments have been undertaken specifically in Thar on existing causes of death; and while the report focuses on the cluster of power parks in Thar, it mistakenly uses data from the rest of Pakistan to extrapolate its effects in Thar, which is both misleading and an incorrect approach.
Secondly, the claims and value judgements in the report seem to have been made without taking into account the ground reality. Thar is a semi-arid desert region which historically has had a relatively poor air quality index due to sparse vegetation and arid topography further deteriorated due to sand-storms and dry weather. Resultantly, Thar has traditionally shown high baseline numbers for PM2.5 concentrations, and this is not just true for Thar but also for other key cities in Pakistan. Take the example of Jamshoro, where naturally occurring particulate matter concentration in the air has generally been high– does this make the case that there should be no industrialization in such cities, or the government needs to relocate entire populations? No, the answer lies in the fact that, for such regions, a baseline is first established and then projects are evaluated on their incremental impact on air quality. Hence, it is very important to look at the incremental impacts these projects pose on the air quality of the surrounding region, and for that a detailed EIA and ESIA has to be conducted prior to project execution which adequately covers the baseline air quality parameters as well as incremental PM2.5 and PM10 emissions. All projects in Thar Coal fields have conducted ESIA studies followed by public hearings and approved by SEPA expert committees, prior to starting construction.
Thirdly, the report alleges that “the proposed plants would constitute one of the largest air pollutant, mercury and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission hotspots in South Asia”; whch again is an exaggeration not reflecting reality. The data used for the environmental modelling is not in line with the power plant’s actual design data and hence the results do not reflect the true picture. Additionally, the report ignores the special type of Thar Coal– lignite– as well as utilization of CFB technology which when taken into account would show the emissions data to be in compliance with environmental regulations. The report makes assumption for operations of the power stations contrary to their technology; for instance for the mercury absorption in the boilers an assumption is made pertinent to Pulverized Coal boilers for all clusters which is not the case for projects planned in Thar. Unlike PC boilers, the CFB boilers are expected a to have higher rate of absorption for mercury emissions as part of the ash rather than predominantly being released into the air in gaseous form.
Fourthly, the report adopts the position that coal is not ‘economically sustainable’ for Pakistan with renewables being the country’s cheapest energy source. While the cost of renewable electricity has come down in recent years, intermittency means they can only be substituted up to a point, given the country’s continuous requirement of power. Given that baseload cannot be entirely replaced by renewables at this stage and hydel is seasonal, one has to carefully consider the thermal options available to Pakistan and look at the country’s energy mix. Pakistan is a net energy importer with about 30 percent of its import bill, fuel. This is why while making its economic case, the report fails to distinguish between Thar coal and imported coal, masking one of the key advantages of Thar coal, that it is an indigenous resource. Experts estimate that at full capacity the Thar power cluster will save $1 billion annually in foreign exchange. Versus imported coal, this saving will be $700 million.
CREA’s biased approach shows in its claim that ‘coal is fast becoming the fuel of the past globally’, which is incorrect. The New Energy Outlook 2019 released by Bloomberg reports that planned additions of coal-fired power plant include over 200,000MW in China; over 51,000 MW in India; almost 11,000 MW in Japan and approximately 27,000MW elsewhere, utoto 2025.
Lastly, a crucial element largely ignored by the study is the positive externalities created. Significant socio-economic benefits have been created in the local communities in the form of provision of local employment; skills-based training programmes; improved public infrastructure; availability of clean drinking water; and civic services (including hospitals, clinics & school network). It is primarily due to these socio-economic benefits that the Thar coal projects have been appreciated across the board both nationally and internationally.
Is this report another targeted attempt to malign and hijack the country’s attempt to secure its energy mix by utilizing its indigenous energy sources and make it remain subservient to the international fuel lobby? The current covid-19 pandemic has already exposed vulnerability of countries depending on imported energy sources and the need for developing indigenous energy resources in countries like Pakistan cannot be overlooked.
