- All sectors are affected
Initially in Pakistan, recorded covid-19 cases were few but now they are mounting and we are not prepared for a situation like Spain or Italy. It has spread to all developing countries and their health-care arrangements are in no position to handle this crisis. Many such countries cannot contain pre-existing infectious diseases; Dengue and polio are such examples in Pakistan. As per reports, health spending per head in Pakistan is 1:200th the level of the USA. The government has requested the masses to avoid social contact and wear mask but seldom are any SOPs observed. The virus is spreading and a potential vaccine is expected in 12 to 18 months. According to data analysts 30 to 60 percent of the population will be infected without strict measures.
Hospitals, doctors and health workers still lack proper equipment in Pakistan. Data collected from the Health Ministry shows that 21 medical professionals have passed away of covid-19 till date. More than 1904 medical practitioners were tested positive, which includes 1035 doctors, 299 nurses and 570 other healthcare staff. An alarming situation for a country which has a ratio of 38 physicians to 10,000 people and a meagre 120 hospital beds per 10,000. According to Special Assistant to PM on Health, coronavirus local transmission level is 92 percent. The stress of staying house-bound is also taking its toll on the mental health of families. Increased cases of depression and panic attacks have been reported in the past one month than ever before. With more than 100 coronavirus vaccines under research, scientists are positive that at least one will be successful. Still even if a vaccine is developed it will not be an easy task to make it widely available. “The requirement to scale up to the kinds of numbers we’re talking about within the short time-frame that we’re speaking about would be an extraordinary effort,” says Emilio Emini, who has been working on vaccines for decades at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Providing billions of doses of vaccine to every corner of the world is easier said than done. We will need special equipment such as bioreactor, a huge tank that allows microorganisms to grow in a cultivated environment. Then there is matter of availability of medical-grade glass and sterile vials in sufficient quantities. When we are discussing billion of doses to be delivered around the world in a short span with limited fund allocations, it creates a kind of bottleneck situation.
Ease in lockdown and opening markets have increased the spread tenfold, and according to pandemic experts there is the possibility that covid-19 will keep on spreading for next 18 to 24 months until 60 to 70 percent of the population has been infected. With hospitals overcrowded and a sharp rise in the number of cases and deaths, Pakistan’s frail health system is bracing for an unthinkable jolt.
Covid-19 has shown its effect on the economy also. Nations now face several predicaments that are tangled with each other which include a medical crisis as well as economic instability and unstable commodity prices. The World Economic Outlook has projected global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 percent. There has been a major downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020. This makes the current lockdown recession even worse than the Great Depression and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis of 2009. According to the Finanve Ministry’s pre-budget economic report, the current account deficit has been reduced by 71 percent to US $3.3 billion, which is 1.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product during July-April FY 2020 against US $11.4 billion last year, or 4.8 percent of the GDP. Exports declined by 2.4 percent to $19.6 billion against $20.1 billion last year. Imports declined by 16.9 percent to $36.1 billion from $43.3 billion last year. Consequently, the trade deficit declined by 29.5 percent to $16.4 billion. Foreign investors have pulled $83billion from developing markets since the start of the crisis, the largest capital depletion ever logged according to the Institute of International Finance.
With the possibility of the recession lasting more than a year and individuals depending on their limited savings, things will become more tense in times to come. Nations with poor economies face a downfall in government revenues and profits. In addition to keeping track of balance of payments, required now for health-related expenditure, governments have to make a decision between saving lives and saving livelihoods.
This pandemic is disturbing the economy in multiple ways. From interrupted supply lines, multiple business closures to halted manufacturing plants, every industry has felt its impact. Major affected categories include small restaurant and marri
age halls, with which multiple occupations are also affiliated. Schools, colleges and private academies also come under this category as their being closed, means that professionals affiliated with education are facing severe financial impact with many being laid off from their jobs. Tourism industry which accounts for 8 percent of global services trade is now at a halt. According to the World Tourism and Travel Council’s annual report, the Pakistan travel and tourism industry was estimated to rise more than 5.9 percent, crossing Rs 986 billion in 2018, contributing Rs. 2,489 billion (7.4 percent) to the GDP, creating around four million jobs and attracting capital investment of more than Rs 410 billion. Leisure travel spending in 2018 was around Rs 1,252 billion, alluring around 1.2 million tourists in Pakistan but now due to lockdown implementation we will observe an overall decline, including in the tourism and aviation industry. The World Bank approved a $500 million programme to help Pakistan improve its healthcare and education, back economic prospects for women and strengthen social safety as the country readies itself from the impact of the coronavirus on its economy.
Ease in lockdown and opening markets have increased the spread tenfold, and according to pandemic experts there is the possibility that covid-19 will keep on spreading for next 18 to 24 months until 60 to 70 percent of the population has been infected. With hospitals overcrowded and a sharp rise in the number of cases and deaths, Pakistan’s frail health system is bracing for an unthinkable jolt.
