- A golden opportunity amidst serious challenges
After the Doha deal between the USA and the Taliban, peace in Afghanistan is finally in sight. The agreement signed on Saturday however is only aimed at paving the way for an all-important intra-Afghan dialogue. While the deal is being widely welcomed, both in the war-weary USA and a war-ravaged Afghanistan, it is accompanied by a number of challenges for the parties directly involved in the Afghan war, the regional countries affected by the war, as well as the world at large which is worried about the terrorist threat emanating from organisations like Al Qaeda and their offshoots currently active in Afghanistan.
The first challenge is to the legitimacy of the Afghan government. Out of the 9.6 million registered voters, only 1.82m votes were declared to be genuine. President Ghani’s rival Abdullah Abdullah has refused to accept the results of the recent presidential election and threatened to announce a rival government with himself as President. The least that is required for intra-Afghan talks to begin is for the USA and Afghan groups is to resolve the dispute urgently.
The intra- Afghan talks will have to settle knotty issues that include the political set up in the post-US troops withdrawal country, the rights of minorities and women and a permanent ceasefire. While Sirajuddin Haqqani, the deputy Taliban chief, is agreeable to a compromise on certain issues like women’s rights and establishing a relationship with Western countries including the USA, the Taliban leadership will have to persuade the hardliners among its commanders and sympathisers, failing which many could join the IS and Al-Qaeda.
Pakistan will have to persuade Washington that the withdrawal of its troops doesn’t lead to the type of void that was filled by warring groups after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989. Hopefully it will be supported by equally worried neighbouring countries. While India has consistently opposed any talks with the Taliban, it is revising its policy by seeking a role in intra-Afghan talks. What strengthens its position is the aid and investment provided to Afghanistan. Islamabad can counter by treating Afghanistan as a sovereign country and relying on the projection of Pakistan’s soft power like extending mutual trade and helping the country in education, health and manpower training.
