- India is making it a dangerous place
Former Indian COAS Gen Bipin Rawat, now Chief of Defence Staff, had a penchant for making gung-ho anti-Pakistan statements. Now even India’s new army and navy chiefs have joined the chorus in echoing His Master’s (Modi’s) Voice. COAS Gen M. M. Naravane intends to `reclaim’ Azad Kashmir if the government orders it to do so, He pointed out “A resolution by Parliament in February 1994 stated that Pakistan must vacate the areas of Jammu and Kashmir, which it has occupied through aggression”. Indian CNS Adm Karambir Singh’s statements reflect that he thinks Chinese ships are barred from entering the Indian Ocean or Gwadar Sea. He expressed ennui at “increasing presence in Indian Ocean of seven to eight PLA warships in that area (Djibouti, Gwadar, etc.) at any given time”. Chinese Ambassador to New Delhi Luo Zhaohui has dispelled India’s fears. He clarified “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would not impinge on anyone’s sovereign rights.” And, ‘Dragon’ and the ‘Elephant’ (Ganesh) were no rivals. He even invited India to join its One-Belt-One-Road project. Indian High Commissioner TCA Raghavan uncannily admitted “India has no worry over the construction of Pakistan-China Economic Corridor as an economically strong Pakistan would bring stability in the region.”
Indian Ocean and Pax Indica: Forty seven countries have the Indian Ocean on their shores. The Indian Ocean is the third largest body of water in the world. It occupies 20 per cent of the world’s ocean surface– it is nearly 10,000 kilometers wide at the southern tips of Africa and Australia and its area is 68.556 million square kilometers, about 5.5 times the size of the USA.
India’s ambition to dominate the Indian Ocean does not augur well for the region. It should let the Indian Ocean remain a zone of peace. The other powers including the USA also are unwilling to part with the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. Besides, France maintains naval bases in the Indian Ocean and stations frigates off its Reunion islands. China has a string of naval assets in the region from Gwadar to Djibouti
India’s motto is ‘whoever controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia’. US Rear Admiral Alfred T. Mahan (1840-1914), an influential naval atrategist, wrote that ‘this ocean is the key to the seven seas in the 21st century; the destiny of the world will be decided in these waters’. This Ocean includes Andaman Sea, Arabian Sea, Red Sea, Flores Sea, Java Sea, Great Australian Bight, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman, Savu Sea, Timor Sea, Strait of Malacca, Bay of Bengal, Mozambique Channel, and Persian Gulf.
The Indian Ocean is rich with living and non-living resources, from marine life to oil and natural gas. Its beach sands are rich in heavy minerals and offshore placer deposits. India is actively exploiting them to its economic advantage. It is a major sea lane providing shipping to 90 percent of world trade. It provides a waterway for heavy traffic of petroleum and petroleum products from the oilfields of the Persian Gulf and Indonesia, and contains an estimated 40 percent of the world’s offshore oil production. The Indian peninsula (i.e. the Deccan and below) juts 1,240 miles into the Indian Ocean. 50percent of the Indian Ocean basin lies within a 1,000 mile radius of India, a reality that has strategic implications. India possesses the technology to extract minerals from the deep sea bed. Under the law of the sea, it has an exclusive economic zone of 772,000 square miles. Chennai is a mere 3,400 miles away from Perth in Australia, slightly more than the distance between New York and Los Angeles.
The Ocean is a major sea lane connecting Middle East, East Asia and Africa with Europe and the Americas. It has four crucial access waterways facilitating international maritime trade, that is the Suez Canal in Egypt, Bab-el-Mandeb (bordering Djibouti and Yemen), Straits of Hormuz (bordering Iran and Oman), and Straits of Malacca (bordering Indonesia and Malaysia). These ‘chokepoints’ are critical to the world oil trade as huge amounts of oil pass through them.
Any disruption in traffic flow through these chokepoints can have disastrous consequences. The disruption of energy flows in particular is a considerable security concern for littoral states, as a majority of their energy lifelines are sea-based. Since energy is critical in influencing the geo-political strategies of a nation, any turbulence in its supply has serious security consequences. Most of the ships approach the straits through the 10-degree channel between the Andaman and Nicobar islands. To dominate these straits, India established its Far Eastern Marine Command at Port Blair in the Andamans. It has developed Port Blair as a strategic international trade centre and built an oil terminal and trans-shipment port in Campal Bay in the Nicobar islands.
China’s interest: In view of the spiraling demand for energy, China is sensitive to the security of the sea lines of communication and chokepoints of the region. Sixty per cent of China’s oil supplies are shipped through the Straits of Malacca.
India and China: Eyeball to eyeball: The Indian Ocean is fast emerging as the new hot-spot of Sino-Indian rivalry. Indian desire to expand its navy manifold to dominate the Indian Ocean has triggered shockwaves in China and other littoral states. Whether it is controlling piracy or use of sea resources, boats of the two countries face each other eyeball-to-eyeball. As is obvious from capital outlays in India’s defence budget, India wants to convert its navy into a blue-water navy as early as possible. The first item on Indian-Navy agenda is getting new aircraft carriers.
Barry Desker, Director Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Singapore, says, `The emergence of new powers like China and India is expected to transform the regional strategic landscape in a fashion that could be as dramatic as the rise of Germany in the 19th century and the United States in the 20th century’.
To counter Indian hegemony, China is intends to have six aircraft carriers. When New Delhi deployed one ship in the Gulf of Aden in October last year with great fanfare, China deployed two warships to the same area. The presence of the Chinese and Indian warships underlines Beijing’s and New Delhi’s intense economic and strategic interests in the world’s third largest ocean.
Conclusion: India’s ambition to dominate the Indian Ocean does not augur well for the region. It should let the Indian Ocean remain a zone of peace. The other powers including the USA also are unwilling to part with the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. Despite adverse advisory opinion on Chagos Island, including Diego Garcia atoll, by International Court of Justice, United States’ forces are still entrenched there. Besides, France maintains naval bases in the Indian Ocean and stations frigates off its Reunion islands. China has a string of naval assets in the region from Gwadar to Djibouti.
