- As power shifts, the region becomes more important
By Muhammad Asif Baloch
Undoubtedly, history proves that the changing shadow of global politics and power transition from one state or region to another state or region leads to geopolitical clashes of interests between emerging and existing powers. It is said that the 19th century was marked as the British century because of its trade and naval power domination. The same is the case of the 20th century which was known as the American because of its economic and military superiority. But now there is a turning point of the power spectrum and geopolitics which is transforming from America to Asia. However, in recent global geopolitical debate the term ‘Asian Century’ is frequently being used because of the growing Asian countries such as China, India, and Japan, due to their robust economies and strong military build-ups.
The Indo-Pacific consists of the Indian Ocean Region and the Western Pacific. Beginning from eastern Africa and passing through East and South Asia all the way to South China Sea and defined by connectivity and conflicts between regional and global powers, today, the region encapsulates the world’s economic centre of gravity and maritime strategy involving it is shaping geopolitical outcomes in the 21st century. The US historian and naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan argued that, “Whoever controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia. This ocean is the key to the seven seas in the 21st century, the destiny of the world will be decided in these waters.” Due to the rising importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the political, economic and security spheres, the region has become the epicentre of geopolitics. In addition, Asian countries are with their economic developments and trade partnerships playing a prominent role in the world’s geopolitical and economic landscape. Recently, China is the world’s fastest-growing economy and its One Belt, One Road initiative is a mega project in the contemporary world consisting of six major economic corridors which connect more than 65 countries from different continents.
The USA has been one of the leading players in the competition. Due to the expanding geopolitical and geo-economic influence of china, the USA is trying to reshape its Indo-Pacific policies to contain and counter China’s manoeuvring in the region. The USA is responding to China by strengthening its own internal power as well as building regional security and military alliances to contain China. These geostrategic and geopolitical developments in the region will leads contending parties in a greater geopolitical rivalry which may be caused direct confrontations
Probably, the Indo-Pacific’s geopolitical chessboard comprises of numerous regional and global powers, having various conflicting and contradictory interests and ambitions in the region. Whereas, the growing influence of China in the region economically and militarily might be the source of contest between involved parties. China’s rise presents a power transition which is a major threat to USA, India and Japan. However, rising China is unacceptable for these parties. These parties perceived China’s BRI project as a major regional as well as global threat, and distinguish it as an encirclement policy known as the String of Pearls towards the region. But Chinese officials never directly claimed that the purpose of the project is other than economic development and regional connectivity. Probably, geostrategic competition exists in the region either economically or militarily. Undoubtedly, China’s building of commercial ports and military bases in the region is not just based on economic purposes but rather shows strategic ambitions. Whereas, Sri-Lanka and Djibouti are the prime examples of Chinese debt trap diplomacy, called neo-colonialism. Owing more than $1 billion in debt to China, Sri Lanka surrendered Hambantota port to Chinese companies owned by its government on a 99-year lease. The same is the case with Djibouti located in the Horn of Africa, where China built its first overseas military base. On the other hand, Gwadar port in Pakistan, Chittagong in Bangladesh, and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, are where China is also willing to use these commercial ports in the near future for military and strategic purposes to check India and the USA in the region. These dilemmas in the Indo-Pacific further intensify the regional strategic competition between contending parties.
In addition, India believes that she is the sole south Asian power and owns the Indian Ocean as a natural part of India and massive Chinese in India’s neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka further enhance India’s sense of fear and of a threat to its national security and interests. China has the strategic ambition of encircling India. There is a chain of fear among South Asian countries from each other India fears China, Pakistan feels threatened by its arch-rival India, and China perceived a threat from India and its ally the USA. China may or may not have any long-lasting goal in the Indian Ocean Region, but she is interested in maintaining the power balance there because of its economic, political, strategic and diplomatic significance. China’s growing military presence in the Indian Ocean should not come as a surprise. China is following in the traditional path of other rising powers by expanding its military operations to match its interests abroad.
Therefore, the emerging of Chinese influence alarmed India into the strategy of thwarting Chinese intentions, with India perceiving it as an expansionist and imperialist encircling strategic policy. Now, Indian policymakers are advancing their naval power under the Indian Maritime Doctrine and modernising into a Bluewater Navy to reach other ports and bases. The Wallet reported, India’s ‘Look East’ policy is a countermove to establish economic and defence ties with Chinese neighbours and south-east Asian nations such as Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea to counter China. Similarly, in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, it is also building the Chabahar port of Iran and Duqm port of Oman for economic and military purposes. Now India is going to respond to China’s encirclement policy through its containment policy.
Furthermore, The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), which is a security and strategic dialogue between India, Australia, Japan, and the USA was formally originated in 2007, by the leaders of these countries. Strategic, military, security and the diplomatic arrangements were at the centre of the discussion and viewed as a response to growing Chinese power in the region. The strengthening Chinese economic and military power is a major cause of regional alignment in the Indo-Pacific region. Chinese aggressive assertiveness in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean region is perceived by Quad members as a threat to the regional international system.
The USA has been one of the leading players in the competition. Due to the expanding geopolitical and geo-economic influence of china, the USA is trying to reshape its Indo-Pacific policies to contain and counter China’s manoeuvring in the region. The USA is responding to China by strengthening its own internal power as well as building regional security and military alliances to contain China. These geostrategic and geopolitical developments in the region will leads contending parties in a greater geopolitical rivalry which may be caused direct confrontations.
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