- Any different from the first?
Just days before the chief of army staff (COAS) general Qamar Javed Bajwa’s three years term was coming to an end the prime minister’s office finally announced an extension in his tenure for another term. Contrary to speculations, it was always a done deal.
The notification for the additional three-year term was issued as early as August this year. But the inexplicable inordinate delay led to all kinds of conjectures in the media.
Amid a period of incremental political turmoil, it was being speculated that the military and civilian leadership were not on the same page. PML-N’s (Pakistan Muslim league Nawaz) ailing supremo Mian Nawaz Sharif being allowed to travel abroad for medical treatment provided the necessary grist to the rumour mill.
The incarcerated Sharif was granted bail by the Lahore High Court. But interestingly the last straw was a visibly enraged prime minister publicly accusing the superior judiciary of harbouring double standards.
Nawaz’s departure was anathema to Khan’s oft-repeated mantra that he will not spare the corrupt Sharifs or Zardari. As pointed out by the CJP the next day, it was the government not the courts that had allowed Sharif to leave on an air ambulance for London for treatment.
If Khan really did not want Sharif to leave the country, was it the military leadership that forced his hands? In this context, the timing of JUI-F (Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl group) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s so-called Azadi march/dharna was considered ominous as well.
Many a conspiracy theorists were of the view that some hidden Machiavellian hand was orchestrating all this to pressurise the government to grant the COAS a three-year extension in his term. Even the wily Maulana had been throwing broad hints in his various public meetings that his abortive putsch was not without a purpose.
But Maulana’s road show has finally ended without a whimper. Now he and his madrasah stalwarts are packing their bags to go home empty handed.
The current month has seen a lot of political activity leading to the completion of the COAS’s first tenure on 29 November. Some analysts view the Chaudhrys of Gujarat’s mini-revolt in the same context. But now, after the event, they are visibly mending fences with their senior coalition partner.
In this backdrop it was not at all surprising that the military spokesman had to clarify twice within a period of a few weeks that the Army is firmly behind the elected government and also on the same page.
This is clearly how it should be. But rarely has been the case in our checkered political history.
Civilian control over the armed forces- a sacrosanct principle of democracy- has perennially remained a pipedream in the Islamic Republic. Even a healthy civ-mil partnership has remained elusive.
Perhaps Khan was a bit hesitant to announce the extension possibly as was speculated, because of the military leadership forcing his hands on certain matters
The PTI government however is an exception to this rule. Khan has enjoyed an excellent rapport with the military chief- a rarity in Pakistani polity.
Whether General Qamar Javed Bajwa sought an extension or the prime minister thrust it upon him, remains a moot question. The easy answer is that Khan needs the military leadership’s continuous support and mentoring. Why change horses in midstream?
This is not the first time that a civilian government has granted extension to an army chief. Previously Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani gave General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani a three-year extension in November 2010.
The then PPP (Pakistan Peoples Party) government had an uneasy relationship with the military. Gilani was not too enamoured with Kayani. When I asked him soon after the event why then did he grant the COAS an extension, the former PM shrugged: “he simply just took it”.
Plainly put, the PPP government had no other recourse but to extend Kayani’s term. Appointment of the COAS every three years is the sole prerogative of the prime minster. But once appointed, civilian leaderships-partly owing to their own acts of omission and commission- are quite dependent on the Chief’s largesse.
But it seems the Khan-Bajwa combination is a rare exception to the rule. It is more of a happy marriage of convenience.
With the advent of Khan, the military ostensibly embarked upon a hybrid model where it could call the shots without being blamed for the consequences. The model suits both parties. Khan, perhaps at the outset, correctly surmised that without the army chief’s mentoring he would be unable to navigate the labyrinth of Pakistani politics.
That is why the government’s detractors allege that Khan is a ‘selected prime minister’. Prior to the 2018 elections manoeuvrings to ‘persuade’ electable candidates to join the PTI is an undeniable fact.
The other day Pervez Elahi, a senior-most member of the ruling coalition, disclosed that the now retired ISI (inter-services intelligence) Lt General Shuja Pasha was instrumental in coercing a few important members of his party to switch loyalties to PTI.
Will General Bajwa in his second term be any different from his first? His first term saw an increasing military footprint in civilian matters. Khan not only welcomed it, he actively sought the Chief’s advice.
Despite key appointments made in consultation with the military chief, the PTI government is yet to find its bearings. Hence, unlike general Kayani who in his second stint as COAS seemed weaker, Bajwa (II) will be more involved in making the PTI government a success story.
The delay in the announcement of his second tenure gave rise to unnecessary conjectures. Perhaps Khan was a bit hesitant to announce the extension possibly as was speculated, because of the military leadership forcing his hands on certain matters.
Allowing Sharif to travel abroad for treatment seems to be a case in point. Perhaps he had to relent, only to claim later that he was duped about Sharif’s medical condition.
That is why he vented his anger on the judiciary only to be badly snubbed by the CJP (the chief justice of Pakistan) Asif Saeed Khosa.
The good news is that despite the increasingly authoritarian bent of the PTI regime, democratic institutional framework becoming more assertive has proved to be more resilient.
The superior judiciary has surely become more independent. Similarly owing to stiff resistance from the opposition the government has been forced to revert to the parliament.
However, on the flip side an overbearing military is never a good idea for strengthening of democratic institutions.
Hopefully with Pakistan precariously facing an existential threat from India and the Afghan imbroglio still not settling down, the Army’s hands will remain largely full with performing its mandated role.
Of course good governance- hitherto lacking- is a sine qua non for a stable civilian polity. Khan, instead of chasing mirages should start getting his act together before it is too late.
He is this time lucky that the opposition deliberately stayed away from Maulana’s moves to oust him through street power. This is not out of love of the PTI chief but to obviate demise of the democratic project.
