The fragile, three-party coalition that has ruled Germany since March has emerged bruised but intact – for the time being – from two weeks of turmoil over the issue of immigration. But its status remains precarious – as does that of the European Union, which depends on Germany’s stability to unite the increasingly fractious bloc.
HOW DID THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT SUDDENLY REACH A CRISIS?
Chancellor Angela Merkel, at the head of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), faced down a rebellion by her interior minister, Horst Seehofer, head of the CDU’s long-time Bavarian sister party, the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), who demanded tougher action against migrants. He had threatened to resign, bringing the young government down.
Mr. Seehofer wanted German border guards to automatically turn back any migrant who had previously registered in another country. Ms. Merkel, who welcomed nearly a million asylum seekers in 2015, refused.
In a compromise with both the CSU to her right, and with her other coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD) to her left, Merkel has agreed to speed up procedures at border police stations to send back asylum seekers who seek entry to Germany even though they have previously sought protection elsewhere.
No more than five such migrants a day showed up last year at the Austrian-German border, trying to get into Bavaria, according to Bavarian government figures. But Seehofer’s party is facing a stiff challenge in upcoming regional elections from the xenophobic Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, and he appears to have chosen immigration as a fertile issue for votes.
Seehofer has agreed to stay in the cabinet even though the compromise he signed falls far short of his earlier demands. Merkel has accepted border checks that she had warned would lead to a cascade of similar moves by neighboring countries, destroying the passport-free travel area that includes 26 European nations. The SPD is happy to have killed the initial idea of setting up “transit camps” on the border, redolent of Germany’s Nazi past, and ensured that migrants will be processed within 48 hours in regular police stations.
All three parties agreed to pass new, comprehensive immigration legislation by the end of the year.
SO THERE’S A DEAL. IS IT A DONE DEAL?
Not exactly. The long-term success of the new arrangement hinges on Germany’s ability to secure bilateral deals with other countries. Merkel had insisted that Germany could not take the sort of unilateral measures that Seehofer had insisted on, but that Berlin must coordinate its policies with its European partners.
That means securing commitments from the countries where migrants have already applied for asylum that they will take them back if they are detained in Germany.
The chancellor returned from a European Union summit in Brussels last week saying she had won agreement from 14 European countries which had expressed their willingness, at least in principle, to do that. Deals with Spain and Greece were among the most notable. But now it’s a matter of convincing Austria and Italy – no easy task, since both countries’ governments were elected on promises to curb migration.
So far, Rome has bristled at the notion of taking back the refugees whom it never wanted in the first place, and whom the new anti-immigrant government would much rather see traveling north to Austria, Germany, and beyond, out of its hair.
Germany, Austria, and Italy said on Thursday they would begin talks next week on ways of shutting down the Mediterranean route that migrants take from Africa to Europe – mainly to Italy.
WHAT’S AT STAKE FOR EUROPE AND GERMANY?
Merkel said it best in a speech to parliament on Wednesday: “The question of how to deal with migration could determine the survival of the European Union,” which is built on the free movement of people, goods, capital, and services. The re-introduction of “hard borders” with frontier police checking travelers’ ID’s would undermine a key pillar of the 28 member union.
With the new deal hinging on Germany’s ability to secure bilateral agreements with other countries, it is fibrous rather than tightly woven; tugging on a single string could unravel the whole thing. If Germany fails to reach an agreement with Italy, for instance, and that country keeps sending refugees north through Austria, they will run into a hard German border.
