Chenab flows may rise to high flood level as heavy rains continue

LAHORE: Water flows in the Chenab River are expected to rise sharply over the next few days as rain continues in the catchment areas of Indian-occupied Kashmir and fresh heavy showers are forecast in parts of Punjab, according to officials and flood monitoring authorities.

A senior Punjab Irrigation Department official said the Chenab was currently flowing at a medium flood level, but could move into the high-flood category if the forecast rainfall materialises over the next three to four days in both held Kashmir and Punjab.

The official warned that conditions could become more serious if the expected heavy rain falls in the river’s catchment zones. In the meantime, the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) issued a warning that major rivers and nullahs could see high flood levels because of heavy rainfall expected until July 24.

“At the moment, the Chenab River is flowing in medium flood. Its flow may surge and enter the high-flood category following forecasts of heavy rain over the next three to four days in both held Kashmir and Punjab,” a senior official of the Punjab Irrigation Department told on Monday.

Flood forecast and vulnerable areas

The FFD’s flood bulletin issued on Monday said flows in all major rivers are likely to increase substantially by July 24 due to a prevailing westerly wave combined with a strong monsoon system advancing from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal across the catchments of the country’s main rivers.

The division said high flood levels were expected in the Chenab at Marala, the Jhelum upstream of Mangla, and in associated nullahs linked to the Jhelum and Chenab, including Dora, Dotta, Dowara, Bhimber, Halsi, Aik and Palkhu. It also forecast high flows in nullahs connected to the Ravi, including Bein, Bassanter, Deg and Sakki, as well as in the Kabul River and its tributaries.

The FFD warned of possible flash flooding in the hill torrents of DG Khan, streams in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Balochistan, and urban flooding in Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Khushab, Sialkot, Gujrat, Narowal, Lahore, Okara, Sahiwal, Bahawalnagar and Faisalabad.

Current river situation

In its assessment of existing river conditions at gauging stations, the FFD said the Indus was flowing at low and below-low levels at Tarbela, Kalabagh, Chashma, Taunsa, Guddu, Sukkur and Kotri.

The Jhelum was running at low to medium flood levels at Mangla and Rasul, while the Chenab was at medium to high flood levels at Marala, Khanki and Qadirabad. The Ravi and Sutlej, it added, were flowing in below-low flood conditions.

Separately, the Water and Power Development Authority’s daily water report said inflows and outflows in the Indus at Tarbela were recorded at 232,500 cusecs and 210,000 cusecs, respectively. At Mangla on the Jhelum, inflows were measured at 57,400 cusecs, while outflows stood at 10,000 cusecs.