China steps in

China tries to bring Pakistan and Afghanistan to a settlement

While the US and Israeli attacks on Iran continued, the earlier clash in the region, between Pakistan and Afghanistan went on. China, even though its friendly relations with Iran demanded that it play a role in that conflict, has tried to mediate between the two, especially since other potential mediators, like Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, have their attention more closely focused on the US-Israel-Iran war. China has a double interest in Afghanistan and Pakistan enjoying peaceful relations. First, Pakistan and Afghanistan are both supposed to be allies, which China is seeking even as it confronts the USA on the global stage. Second, it has significant interests in both countries, in Afghanistan in rare-earth metal ores, in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Apart from the shadow it casts, the USA-Israel-Iran war resembles the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict in that one reason for its continuing is that both sides are making demands that the other cannot meet. The USA has demands on not just the Iranian nuclear programme, but also its missile programme and its intervention in the Middle East. Iran cannot conceivably make any concessions. Similarly, Pakistan demands Afghanistan stop giving safe havens to the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan. However, Afghanistan’s Taliban regime feels it cannot do so, thus threatening a core interest of Pakistan, which is the safeguarding of its people and Constitution. The present confrontation arose after an attempted infiltration by the TTP. The problem for China is that it is all very well for China to ask both sides to engage in talks, but the Taliban’s credibility is shot, because there have been talks aplenty before, and the Afghan regime has committed to ending the safe havens, but it has carefully refrained from taking any of the actions ending them that Pakistan has demanded. Just as the USA and Israel saw no way out but regime change, Pakistan has now said it will no longer engage with the Taliban regime.

However, Pakistan may find that it has to make yet another effort. After all, China finds it worthwhile. It should be realized that keeping Afghanistan unsafe for China to exploit its rare-earths is something that suits the USA. However, Pakistan should also realize that, as the neighbour of both China and Afghanistan, it cannot benefit from disruption, and thus must be willing to walk the extra mile, provided of course that the Taliban are also ready to do so.