Upstream control, downstream fear

Water has really grown to be a powerful coercive tool in South Asia. The suspension of the working structure of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and the rapid, un-checked building of hydropower and storage infrastructure on the Indus River System by India is a disturbing trend marked by non-cooperative water governance. This changing position may be aptly termed hydro-terrorism — manipulation of water to create pressure on downstream states and their peoples.

The rivers that have been referenced as belonging to India are divided between the signatories of the IWT that was signed in 1960 and is commonly known as one of the most enduring water-sharing agreements in the world. These rivers contribute almost 80 per cent of the surface water in Pakistan, making it the critical key to its irrigation system, food production and energy generation. Any interruption has a direct impact on livelihoods, food security and economic stability.

In recent years, India has built dozens of hydropower projects along the Indus Basin, specifically in occupied Jammu and Kashmir. It is estimated that there are about 40 small and medium dams and run-of-the-river projects that are either operational, or under construction and/or are being planned. Although India claims that the projects are in line with the treaty, the cumulative storage capacity, gated spillways and peaking power designs enable upstream control of timing and volume of flows. Any interim withholding can lead to disproportional downstream damages even when it is temporary and exists within sowing seasons.

As things stand, Pakistan is already regarded as a water-stressed nation and its per capita water avaialbility today has been reduced to less than 900 cubic metres, which is nothing for a nation that had 5,000 cubic metres per person in 1951. This is way below the scarcity threshold. Pakistan has more than 90pc of its available fresh-water in agriculture, and any fluctuation in the rivers means that crops are directly impacted.

What is even more threatening is the fact that mechanisms that are required under the treaty, like data-sharing, prior project notification and dispute resolution forums, remain suspended. The mechanisms were the pillars of the treaty which were aimed at avoiding mistrust and unilateralism. Their inability poses uncertainty, reduces confidence and increases the chances of making a miscalculation. Securitisation of water, which used to be controlled by law and technical discourse, is taking place at an alarming pace.

Terrorism is not just violence, but the establishment of an order of fear and vulnerability. When millions of farmers wait to receive canal water, when reservoirs work in unpredictability, when food security is a hostage to the decisions that are made upstream, water ceases to be a common resource; it becomes a weapon.

Pakistan should internationalise this problem immediately. Without water justice, sustainable peace in South Asia is not possible. Treaties should be respected, rivers should be allowed to run their course, and, more critically, water should not be permitted to be used for coercion.

NAIMAT ULLAH KHAN

LAHORE