- Any real change?
The change in Pakistan Army Act through the parliament to extend the tenure of Chief of Army Staff Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa for another three years in now a virtual fait accompli. A lot of backroom negotiations took place possibly through intermediaries to bring the mainstream opposition parties- the PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) and the PPP (Pakistan People’s Party) – on board before the Amendment Bill is tabled in the Senate and National Assembly.
Unsurprisingly, Prime Minister Khan as well as the opposition have invoked the ubiquitous national interest in the matter. However, there was a clear difference in the stance of the PML-N and that of the PPP.
Ironically it was the enigmatic Rana Sanaullah who broke the news on the PML-N’s behalf. The visibly chastened Rana who only a couple of days back was released from ANF’s (Anti-Narcotics Force) custody announced that it was being done in the country’s best interest.
The Party President Shehbaz Sharif had already instructed the rank and file not to make the issue of the Army Chief’s extension controversial.
The Sharifs themselves maintained a stony silence on the matter. The PML-N leadership, quite enthusiastically supporting an extension in the tenure of the incumbent Army Chief, has been termed by some critics as the mother of all U-turns.
But in the backdrop of the PML-N’s rather timid attitude in the recent past towards its perceived tormenters in the Establishment, it would have been quite a surprise if it had opposed the move.
This only confirmed what is now common knowledge; the dovish younger Sharif’s soft line is ruling the roost in the party. This does not mean that Nawaz Sharif, the ailing supremo, no longer calls the shots.
Nonetheless his hardline and that of his stalwarts like Khawaja Asif for the time being is now a thing of the past. Even Maryam, the erstwhile hawk, has been silenced. It seems as if she has retired from active politics.
Some are wondering what is the quid pro quo in the matter. It is quite obvious now that had it not been change of tack by the Sharifs, both the brothers as well as Maryam would still be behind bars.
The prime minister expressed outrage at the elder Sharif managing to escape the gauntlet and proceeding to London. But surely this would not have happened without behind the scenes mechanisations of the ubiquitous Establishment.
Perhaps if Khan had not accused the superior judiciary, the outgoing CJP (Chief Justice of Pakistan) Asif Saeed Khosa would not have taken up the matter of extension in tenure of the COAS. That is why it became axiomatic for the government to clean up the mess it had itself created.
After all, heavens would not have fallen if Shehbaz Sharif had asked his party stalwarts to consult the PPP in order to evolve a joint stance on the matter. But perhaps an inbuilt disdain of the Bhuttos and a propensity for one-upmanship prevented him from doing so
The PPP, on the other hand, has adopted more nuanced stance. Its chairperson Bilawal Bhutto, though in principle is in agreement, still wants proper parliamentary procedures to be followed in adopting amendments to the Army Act.
Perhaps to accommodate PPP’s demands the Bill was tabled on Friday rather than adopting it by a simple majority as was originally planned. The matter will be taken up on Monday now.
Bilawal knows fully well that without his party’s support in the Senate (where it has the majority) the amendment cannot pass. That is why the ruling party had no option but to accommodate the PPP’s concerns.
After PPP’s objections even the PML-N was forced to change its strategy. The party’s supremo has instructed Khawaja Asif to follow parliamentary procedures rather than steamrolling the proceedings.
Bilawal had justifiably complained that the PML-N– perhaps on instructions from its president- showed unholy haste by lending “unconditional support” to the proposed bill.
It is a bad reflection on Sharifs’ style of politics. Going by past experience, consensual politics are merely a function of their own selfish interests. Asif Zardari many a times has expressed his bitterness in the manner in which the then prime minister Nawaz Sharif ditched him on multiple occasions once his support was no longer required.
After all, heavens would not have fallen if Shehbaz Sharif had asked his party stalwarts to consult the PPP in order to evolve a joint stance on the matter. But perhaps an inbuilt disdain of the Bhuttos and a propensity for one-upmanship prevented him from doing so.
The other question that begs an answer is why is the PML-N president ensconced is in London while his presence is badly required here to lead the party in this time of crisis.
Granted that he has to tend to his ailing brother, but London is not the remotest of remote places. There are multifarious flight connections on a daily basis between Lahore and London.
He can always fly back to London if his presence is so urgently required. In any case, the elder Sharif’s two sons are omnipresent there to look after him.
Right now, the PML-N is like a rudderless ship. While the Sharifs are away, its secretary general Ahsan Iqbal is in NAB’s (National Accountability Bureau) custody on rather nebulous charges.
What kind of message the younger Sharif is conveying to the party’s rank and file by his continued absence? Most of its top leadership is incarcerated or facing NAB cases while he is in London virtually doing nothing.
Some sanity has finally prevailed on all sides. The PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) has agreed to pass the Bill by going through normal legislative process.
The National Assembly and Senate’s joint standing committee approved the three bills pertaining to the Army Act, the Navy, Act and the Air Force Act on Friday. Hence there is no hitch now in the amendment becoming a law.
The moot question left to ponder is Gen Bajwa (two) post-extension, will be any different from Gen Bajwa (one)? What will be the impact of the extension in tenure on domestic politics?
Theoretically the military’s job description precludes its dabbling in politics. But unfortunately, in Pakistan ever since the first Pakistani Commander Chief Gen Muhammad Ayub Khan started interfering in politics this has been the norm, albeit with varying intensity.
The present military leadership– following a new hybrid model according to critics- is generally perceived to be mentoring the incumbent PTI regime. That is why Bilawal Bhutto and to a lesser extent the rest of the opposition sarcastically accuse Imran Khan of being a selected rather than an elected prime minister.
Khan claims that 2020 will be a year of change and progress. But given the multifarious challenges his government faces that might be a hard act to follow.
With the PTI’s wafer-thin majority at the federal level as well as in Punjab, the opposition is hoping for an in-house change. The younger Sharif in this context has been openly touting the so-called minus one formula.
But it is difficult to imagine a ruling PTI coalition minus Khan. So ultimately fresh general elections might be the only option.
It all depends on how far and to what extent the military leadership will keep leaning on Khan even if he continues to fail to deliver on governance and to stabilise the economy.
Perhaps that is the quid pro quo the opposition is hoping for; unequivocally supporting Gen Bajwa’s extension for another term? Perhaps, the least it expects, is a level playing field.
