IRSA approves 15pc early Kharif water shortfall for 2026

ISLAMABAD: The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has approved a projected water shortage of up to 15 per cent for the early Kharif 2026 season and fixed provincial water withdrawals at 67.451 million acre-feet (MAF), as officials cautioned that supply pressures would continue despite better reservoir storage.

The decision was made during a meeting of the IRSA Advisory Committee held on Tuesday under the chairmanship of IRSA Chairman Amjad Saeed to finalise water availability criteria for the Kharif season, which runs from April to September.

According to officials, Rim-Station inflows are estimated at 103.30 MAF, including 24.48 MAF for early Kharif and 78.81 MAF for late Kharif. The committee approved a 15pc shortfall for early Kharif, covering April to 10 June, and said the position would be reviewed in the first week of May 2026. For late Kharif, the approved shortfall was set at 5pc.

Under the approved allocations, Punjab will receive 33.357 MAF, Sindh 30.403 MAF, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa through CRBC 0.823 MAF, and Balochistan 2.868 MAF. The total allocation compares with last year’s overall usage of 60.558 MAF and the 10-year average of 62.252 MAF.

Rabi inflows and storage position

The committee noted that inflows during the Rabi 2025-26 season, from October to March, stood at 21.782 MAF against an anticipated 22.016 MAF, showing a shortfall of 1pc.

At the same time, water storage in the system was recorded at 2.307 MAF on March 31. This was considerably higher than the 0.384 MAF available during the same period last year and also above the 10-year average of 1.351 MAF.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department forecast normal to above-normal rainfall between April and June, especially in the western and northern parts of the country. However, it also warned that temperatures are expected to remain above normal across the country.

Concern over Tarbela storage loss

IRSA also expressed concern over declining storage at Tarbela Dam. Officials said the dam’s live storage capacity had fallen from 5.827 MAF in May 2022 to 5.580 MAF in March 2026 due to sedimentation, describing it as a nearly 48pc overall reduction. The committee directed WAPDA to provide a detailed mitigation plan.

The meeting also endorsed operational timelines for Tarbela’s T4 hydropower plant, which is expected to become functional after May 7. The committee stressed the need for close coordination to manage reservoir limitations during the ongoing construction work on the T5 project.

The decisions were taken as IRSA moved to set water distribution parameters for the coming Kharif season amid continuing concerns over availability, storage management and infrastructure constraints in the river system.