India’s deflated ‘Hypersonic’ dreams

With the usual theatrics, frenzied headlines in the Indian media in July 2025 claimed that India has developed a missile far deadlier than BrahMos. They were referring to the Extended Trajectory Long Duration Hypersonic Cruise Missile (ET-LDHCM) that saw its daylight launch test in mid-July 2025. Just like the BrahMos, the Indian officials have described the ET-LDHCM as a gamechanger; however, this assertion remains debatable.

The ET-LDHCM is part of India’s Project Vishnu– a classified project led by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) aimed at developing indigenous hypersonic weapons. The development of this putative hypersonic capability was hailed by India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh as a historic moment for India, as it places the country in league with the elite group of nations possessing indigenous long range hypersonic missiles capabilities.

ET-LDHCM has an alleged range of 1500 km which can be extended to 2500 km; is able to fly at Mach 8 because of its scramjet engine; withstand high temperatures up to 2000C; and carry conventional and nuclear warheads weighing up to2000kg.. There are also claims that ET-LDHCM has mid-flight manoeuvrability and stealth capabilities which lower radar detectability.

Similar hubris filled statements were issued for BrahMos. Rajnath Singh termed it as not only a weapon, but a message of Indian armed forces’ strength, deterrence against enemies and commitment to safeguard Indian borders. Similarly, Sivathanu Pillai, the ‘father of BrahMos’ remarked that it cannot be intercepted by an enemy in the next 20 years. The May 2025 Indo-Pakistan conflict effectively nullified the Indian claims. According to some media reports, most of the BrahMos fired by India were downed by Pakistan through soft kills– demonstrating the Indian system’s inefficiencies. At least one BrahMos became battlefield debris when it was successfully intercepted and shot down by the Pakistani air defence system over Jacobabad. Moreover, there was a marked difference in the advertised and actual capabilities of BrahMos. At most, it reached the speed of Mach 1.6 during the conflict and displayed inaccuracies in its targeting.

The timing of the ET-LDHCM test after the May 2025 conflict is also significant. Given India’s humiliating defeat at the hands of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), it is probable that India is posturing by enhancing its other complementary capabilities, of which hypersonic missiles are an integral part. Nevertheless, it has been contended by Ankit Panda, the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Relations that the ET-LDHCM test is more of an ‘evolutionary step’ than a gamechanger.

In particular, the hype received by hypersonic missiles is termed misguided by various analysts because their cost is disproportionate to their meagre advantages. Elsewhere, it has been argued that they do not bring any significant military advantages and are rather mediocre. This is because despite claims of stealth, these weapons are easily detectable due to high infrared signals produced by high speed. An example is the Russia–Ukraine theatre. It saw Ukraine downing the Kinzhal Russian hypersonic missile in 2023 with the help of the US Patriot missile defence system. This shattered the invincibility lore associated with hypersonic weapons.

Though speed is an important asset, hypersonic missiles do not provide nearly as many advantages as advertised in addition to not living up to the hype in India’s case. The ET-LDHCM, therefore, seems geared towards providing India the prestige boost of becoming a member of a small number of states with indigenous hypersonic technology. More importantly, Pakistan has demonstrated its readiness and capability in combatting Indian high-speed projectiles in times of both war and peace. Therefore, while India may boast of having developed a gamechanger, its reality may not be as significant knowing the Indian technology.

In close geographical proximity, high-speed weapons are even more ineffective. This is because shorter distance translates into shorter flight times for all types of missiles, making adversarial neighbours prepared to counter air threats in both peace and war times. A case in point is the night of 9 March 2022 when PAF was able to pick up and track India’s “accidentally” fired BrahMos missile 104 kn inside Indian territory. The supersonic missile was continuously tracked by PAF until it entered Pakistan’s airspace and crashed near Mian Channu in Punjab. This demonstrated that high-speed missiles can be detected and also intercepted if necessary.

Therefore, Pakistan is fully capable of countering high-speed next generation threats, inclusing hypersonic weapons. This renders the strategic rationale of greater efficacy of hypersonic missiles futile. While answering questions from the press on 10 May 2025, Pakistan’s Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmed unequivocally stated that Pakistan’s air defence systems are competent enough to handle all incoming threats, be they hypersonic or not.

Though speed is an important asset, hypersonic missiles do not provide nearly as many advantages as advertised in addition to not living up to the hype in India’s case. The ET-LDHCM, therefore, seems geared towards providing India the prestige boost of becoming a member of a small number of states with indigenous hypersonic technology. More importantly, Pakistan has demonstrated its readiness and capability in combatting Indian high-speed projectiles in times of both war and peace. Therefore, while India may boast of having developed a gamechanger, its reality may not be as significant knowing the Indian technology.