- Trump is not going to fade away like previous one-termers
Joe Biden has been elected President of the USA, but his predecessor is not going to do as his own four predecessors as one-term Presidents in the 20th century, Robert Taft, Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George Bush, which was to fade out. Though Trump has lost, the margin has not been narrow enough to drive him from politics.
It has already been accepted that in 2024, the Republican nominee will have to win Trump’s support to win the nomination, and to have any fair chance of winning office. The election was perhaps even narrower than in 2016, when it was narrow enough, and Biden’s victory in the popular vote meant that if Trump had won, it would have been for the second consecutive time that someone would have won the Electoral College, while losing the popular vote.
That is why there is already talk of Trump running again in 2024. There is only one precedent of someone losing the Presidency, and then contesting it again to win it, that of Grover Cleveland. However, there are certain differences, as well as certain similarities.
US Presidents are elected for eight years typically, with the election at the four-year mark being a sort of performance review. Trump has clearly failed his. Yet he still retains immense influence, which is why there is talk of his handing over to his daughter, with dynasticism creeping in, the example of the Bushes showing the way. Dynasticism is there in the Democrats too, as the Clintons showed
The biggest difference is that Grover Cleveland was a Democrat. In fact, Cleveland was the only Democrat to win the Presidency between 1856 and 1912. He won in 1884, lost in 1888, and won again in 1892. He too was from New York, but he had entered politics more normally, having won elections as Mayor of Buffalo and as Governor of New York.
There are some similarities, like the fact that he was involved in dicey elections. There appears to have been some rigging in Indiana. The theme of rigging has been struck again, this time by Trump himself. Pakistan has been spared the sight of incumbent rulers alleging rigging only because there are caretaker governments conducting elections. 1990 was the last time that caretakers contested polls. The USA seems to have solved the problem by not allowing the government to control the polls, but that does not seem to have prevented the allegations.
One reason for such allegations is to allow supporters to indulge in wish fulfillment. The motive is more rooted in psychology than politics, for it appeals to basic feelings that ‘the system’ is at fault, not Trump. It appeals to all of those who feel alienated from the system, with the subtext that Trump is one of them, and a vote for him is a vote for empowering themselves.
The net result is that the primary symbol of US democracy, the election process, is discredited. This would not mean damage to the USA, but to elections everywhere. Pakistan is a prime example. Even before the US Presidential election result, the PDM was holding rallies, and PML(N) supremo Mian Nawaz Sharif attacked the military for manipulating the election results. The primary argument against this is that elections cannot be manipulated so easily, but Trump seems to be saying that manipulation is possible.
Of course, this defeat is of a pattern the 2016 win was not: white supremacists do not win elections. However, even though elections are not won, the right has been making strides, to the extent that mainstream politicians like Emanuel Macron of France and Boris Johnson of the UK have been making gestures towards racists and white supremacists. Trump was one of those rightist politicians who obdurately refused to condemn the white supremacists who endorsed him, as his behaviour during the Black Lives Matter movement showed. Trump has been defeated by the first black President’s (white) Vice-President and a black woman.
However, there are some caveats. The black woman, Kamala Harris, like the black man, Barack Obama, had only one Negro parent, and that too a migrant. That meant that Obama, whose father was a Kenyan, had no ancestor who had undergone the experience of slavery which is the reality of the African-American’s background. Ms Harris’ father was a Jamaican immigrant. That means he was descended from people who had been slaves in Jamaica, not the USA.
Also, Hispanic voters seem to be abandoning the Democrats. This highlights the diversity among Hispanics, and also the racism among them. It would be interesting to see if Hispanics identifying as white are more inclined to the Republicans.
In Pakistan, Harris’s mother’s Indian background is a cause for concern. She was a Tamil, which meant that she did not carry the almost instinctive anti-Pakistan bias common among the Cow Belt, but her father was a diplomat, which probably meant he carried the anti-Pakistan tilt standard in its entire establishment. Vice-President Harris was close to him as a child, and would probably be a voice against Pakistan in the Biden Administration. Her record as a human rights lawyer should incline her against the violations of human rights in Kashmir, but they would also incline her to raise issues of military interference in politics, as well as military backing of Islamic militants. The Pakistani establishment has always been inclined towards Republicans, while it has found Democrats asking embarrassing questions.
Perhaps the only thing worse that the Pakistani establishment can imagine is her becoming President. It is possible, for Biden is turning 78 in five days, and will thus be the oldest man to begin a presidency. The previous record was held by Trump, who is 74, and would have been 78 at the end of his term, had he won. That is perhaps one factor that might prevent him contesting in 2024. He would be pretty old to contest, with inevitable questions about the fact that he would be 82 at the end of that term.
Kamala Harris is 56, while Vice-President Mike Pence is 60. Harris seems likely to be the future Democrat standard-bearer. That will depend on whether Biden serves two terms. They are only young compared to their principals.
However, it should be remembered that Biden has been elected to reconcile the USA, as well as US allies, to upset them. Trump was unpredictable, which was not a good thing for a superpower. If one remembers that the superpower is in decline, and looks as if it will be replaced by China, it may be that the Biden Presidency will be remembered as the time this happened. Pakistan hopes to benefit from all those years of friendship.
At the same time, China is not entirely comfortable with Biden. Surprisingly, neither Russia nor Israel seem that enthused by a Democrat winning, which indicates how good they felt Trump was for them. Ukraine, over which Trump got impeached, and where Biden is involved through his son, has also not reacted.
US Presidents are elected for eight years typically, with the election at the four-year mark being a sort of performance review. Trump has clearly failed his. Yet he still retains immense influence, which is why there is talk of his handing over to his daughter, with dynasticism creeping in, the example of the Bushes showing the way. Dynasticism is there in the Democrats too, as the Clintons showed.
Biden’s win represents the desire to arrest the trend Trump represents, to end democracy, just as it ended in Rome and was replaced by the Empire.
