- Why it matters to Pakistan
By: Wali Imran Khalil
The India-China conflict over strategic heights in the Galwan Valley of disputed Ladakh, didn’t become an all-out war just because both countries have worked too hard to get where they are.
So, what is this fuss about the Daulat Beg Oldi army camp to Karakorum pass road, high up in North West of India, in disputed territory, and the supposed Galwan Valley incursion, by China?
China was repeatedly badgered by Pakistan about Kashmir and by Nepal about Lipulekh pass and India’s hegemonic motives in the North, but China looked the other way. India repeatedly scuffled with Chinese troops over the 3880 Kilometers Line of Actual Control, to secure passes and heights, but China let it slide. India landed widebodied aircraft on its Daulat Beg Oldi post near the Karakorum Pass into Pakistani Gilgit-Baltistan and subsequently to the CPEC road, and China shifted a little. Finally, Mr. Modi’s crazy lieutenant, Amit Shah, uttering “(Gilgit Baltistan) POK is included when I talk of J&K” after he revoked constitutional protection of Kashmir’s independence, was the last straw.
Chinese troops moved in overnight into a valley and commanding heights that lead to the confluence of Shyok and Galwan rivers, from where the new road runs up to the Karakorum Pass. The Indians were so immersed in their self-aggrandizements that they were blindsided by the Chinese manoeuvre. Indian and Chinese generals agreed to deescalate, but then Indian troops moved up another commanding height and were beaten back by Chinese, some falling into the ravine below; 40 Indian soldiers died. The Chinese had outmanoeuvred the Indians!
Daulat Beg Oldi, an Indian base and runway on occupied land, was stolen from a 16th century nobleman and traveller. This pass overlooks the Tibet-Xinjiang road and is also close to Skardu CPEC link. It and can be easily jumped across by India troops using the recently extended runway and increased troop numbers.
The Ladakh conflict
was thus about protecting Chinese investments and their breakout CPEC route to the world. Now if India sends troops over the Karakorum Pass, using their Daulat Beg Oldi base, which India has threatened to, into Skardu to interdict the CPEC route, China will cut off their supply line.
Pakistan needs to learn to balance world power interests. Jumping into one camp is never a great idea. 70 years in the USA’s lap didn’t get us Kashmir. T could Try being nonaligned for a change and focus on national institution and society’ building. Pakistan needs to learn to balance world power interests. Jumping into one camp is never a great idea. 70 years in the USA’s lap didn’t get us Kashmir. T could Try being nonaligned for a change and focus on national institution and society’ building
The Chinese Foreign Office also made it clear the entire Galwan Valley is China’s. So they would probably not be moving back.
In the melee, several Indian and supposedly Chines soldiers were killed and Pakistanis are ecstatic that at least some country in the world had the courage to call a jackass a jackass.
India and China have decided to withdraw troops from their aggressive posture around the DBO-Karakorum interdiction point, but I doubt Chinese will come down from the commanding heights.
Mr. Modi has already said Chinese troops never came into Indian territory! Now that’s what real national power is.
China has indicated clearly throughout its party mouthpiece that India’s servile attitude towards the USA’s initiative to encircle China have led to this mess. India’s recent joining the Quad alliance with Australia, and Japan was not viewed well in China. The USA properly rewarded India by having it elected unopposed a non-permanent UNSC member of UNSC and also to the WHO executive body of World Health Organization. India immediately called for initiation of inquiry into Covid-19s origin inside China. Modi’s recklessness in the covid19 situation and bluster against Pakistani Kashmir, was too much for Chinese nationalists.
The USA is cheering on Indian racist BJP leaders to be tough on China. India has its own axe to grind against Muslim extremism by conducting extrajudicial killings in Kashmir and including terrorism in the Quad’s agenda.
Indian BJP leaders, being racist themselves, cannot break out of the white-man worship syndrome. When the colonial British were egging on Hindu Marhattas against the Nizam of Hyderabad or sending Ranjit Singh to fight their battles in Pashtun land and Kashmir, the same people slavishly obliged. This mindset cannot understand peaceful coexistence, free from injustice and interference.
The USA will sell more arms to India. The Indian economy of $3 trillion, already tottering from poor social spending, and heavily dependent on US largesse on imports to western countries and immigration, will slide further in the race to the top. China is already a $14 trillion economy.
India needs to forget about interdicting CPEC for at least a decade till it is a $10-trillion economy, but is hamstrung in this by cultural stupidity in the India elite. Common sense says you cannot become the village chief if you steal land from your estranged neighbor.
India has placed all its eggs in USA’s basket thinking the white knight will save them from barbarians. Has USA ever made Mexico its ally?
India might still try to create a diversion from its ignominious defeat by attacking Pakistan, their favorite whipping boy. They might take the vulnerable land till the Neelum valley. That would bring them a step closer to CPEC, and they could curry Western favor as a result.
A receding superpower like the USA will open up its war chest to support this prop of theirs, but unfortunately, Indian reputation in the dogfight with Pakistan and the Ladakh capitulation, has suffered immense damage. As always, India has shown itself a beehive of worker bees, good for amassing honey but not for fighting a more powerful bee colony.
What will China do now?
China will try to get back to business as usual as early as possible, because it is realistic. China will definitely think twice before voting against Pakistani militant proxies directed towards India, like Masood Azhar. India still funds and trains militants in Baluchistan to disrupt CPEC projects; so China might ask it to stop. China will link up Nepal through Arunachal Pradesh to CPEC in Pakistan, so that it has alternate source of imports in case India blockades them like in 2015. China will breathe down India’s neck in Siliguri Corridor till the time pragmatic politicians arrive in India that can balance US and Chinese interests.
The BJP will attack Muslims to keep their extremist votebank intact and still curry favour from Western leaders, by imitating western values.
The US-India nuclear deal has opened up opportunities for India it could never have imagined, and it aims to max out this credit card.
India is feeling the heat from its northern border with countries that were being bullied to submission like Nepal, Bangladesh and even Bhutan jumping ship to China’s camp. That says a lot about who the new sheriff in town is.
What China is telling India is that both the sheriffs can enjoy the fruits of their status together, but India right now is having none of that. Mr. Modi wants to be the only sheriff in town with borrowed guns, shoes and bullets and a tattered gunbelt.
Pakistan’s fear of Indian incursion through Karakorum pass and Skardu is over for the time being, but the threat to Azad Jammu and Kashmir especially Muzaffarabad up to Neelum River remains. Pakistan needs to develop vital interests for China in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, for the Giant Dragon to even notice the killings there.
Pakistan gets more time to get its house in order, strengthen institutions, especially the economy, and build a working relation with India, till the time India inevitably rises like Hanuman again. When that day comes, and it eventually will, China would not be interested to stop them.
India still has a road safe a secure to reach Siachen glacier, so that’s no good for Pakistan.
Pakistan gets nothing tangible from this conflict except the satisfaction of India getting a good whopping. That’s enough for many, but nothing tangible.
Pakistan needs to learn from China the immense benefits of being a larger country economic and land wise. National power should be the catchword, if this country is to survive the political storms coming its way coursing an independent path.
Pakistan needs to convince the USA that their interests would be better served if Pakistan is made the pivot state instead of India. An increase land mass, by forming dominions with Kashmir and maybe Afghanistan would give USA the influence that they so crave in this part of the world.
Pakistan should learn from China and take back the heights it lost in 1971, near Turtuk-Thoise close to Galwan valley, that overlook Indian roads to Siachen Glacier, also illegally occupied by India.
Pakistan needs to learn to balance world power interests. Jumping into one camp is never a great idea. 70 years in the USA’s lap didn’t get us Kashmir. T could Try being nonaligned for a change and focus on national institution and society’ building.
The writer retired as a wing commander from the PAF
