- The Indian military doesn’t seem to know there’s a pandemic
India’s 2020-21 Budget envisages a total outlay of Rs 30,42,230 crore. Out of this, Rs 3, 37,553 crore has been allocated for military (excluding military pensions). For military pensions, Rs. 1, 33,825 crore has been provided in Budget Estimates 2020-21. There is an increase of Rs 40,367.21 crore in the total military allocations (Rs 4, 71,378 crore) over 2019-20.
The total military budget accounts for 15.49 percent of total expenditure for 2020-21. The allocation represents a growth of 9.37 per cent over Budget Estimates for 2019-20. Out of Rs 3, 37,553 crore allocated for 2020-21, Rs 2, 18,998 crore is for net revenue expenditure and Rs 1, 18,555 crore is for capital expenditure, which includes modernization-related expenditure.
The ‘transparent’ military expenditure shows an increase of only 9.37 per cent. But, if we add to it concealed provisions the increase would balloon manifold. The concealed provisions include quasi-defence allocations like border and strategic roads, nuclear/space research, paramilitary forces like Border Security Force, Central Reserve Police Force, and so on. Besides there are public sector undertakings like dockyards, machine tool industries and Bharat Heavy Electrical Limited.
Then, India unnoticeably increases her defence expenditure under Revised and Actual budget estimates. But the real expenditure in past years has been much greater than that shown. Previously, India increased its military outlays in revised and then actual estimates. Thus the actual military expenditure is much higher than the initial estimates, which are quoted in international media under a hypnotic spell.
India does so to `lower’ its military budget as proportion of GNP. Thus India, as compared with its neighbours, gets a favourable image in The Military Balance, Jane’s Defense, and other international magazines.
Any analysis of India’s military budget should be based on actual Demands for Grants coupled with Explanatory memoranda. The allocations concealed under civil ministries outlays should be ferreted out and added to military allocations. The successive increases in revised and then actual budget estimates should be taken into account. Showcased figures conceal actual allocations
The Explanatory Memorandum to Demands for Grants, not generally available, throws light on India’s mega-purchases. They include carbines for the army, Advanced Jet Trainers, Airborne Warning and Control system, additional Mi-17 Helicopters, MiG-29 upgrade, Low-Level Transportable Radar, Integrated Air Command and Control System and Surveillance Radar Element for the air force. Weapon Locating Radar and T- 72 upgrade for the Army, Rafale fighters, and more.
During his visit to India, US President Donald Trump offered to sell India $3 billion (per unit) Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) missile defence systems as an alternative to the Russian S-400 system. India ditched Russia, from whom it had decided to purchase five S-400 systems for $5.4 billion. With tacit US support, India is getting tougher with China. There was a 73-day standoff on the Doklam plateau on the Sikkim border last year.
At US prodding, India revised its maritime strategy in 2015 to “Ensuring Secure Seas”. The previous strategy was “Freedom to Use the Seas”. To implement the new strategy, India built the Chabahar port. India took up the development of the Sittwe Port in Myanmar as part of the Kaladan multi-modal transit transport project for building a multi-modal sea, river and road transport corridor for shipment of cargo from the eastern ports of India to Myanmar through Sittwe. India upgraded its existing listening post in northern Madagascar.
India has obtained access to the US naval base in Diego Garcia, and to the French naval bases in Mayotte and Reunion, besides the Australian naval base in the Cocos. Robert Kaplan, in his book, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and Future of American Power, argues that the geopolitics of the 21st century will hinge on the Indian Ocean. Its waters reach 28 countries which together account for 35 percent of the world’s population and 19 percent of its GDP. Sixty percent of the world’s oil shipments from the Gulf countries to China, Japan and other Asian countries pass through these waters which host 23 of the world’s busiest ports.
Methyl isocyanates were being produced at the Union Carbide India when it exploded killing thousands of people. There were 27 factories producing products including Carbaryl through cyanates supplied by UCIL. Vizag Gas Leak also has military potential. Where does provision for CBW research appears in India’s military budgets?
Colossal expenditure on conventional weapons by a nuclear power is not understood. Nuclear deterrence does not mean matching bomb for bomb. Nuclear victory would at best be pyrrhic.
India is emerging as the US proxy against rising China, which is determined to surpass the USA in GDP by 2027. India is opposed to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Besides, it uses its aid, trade and border contiguity to obstruct Chinese influence in Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh.
At India’s bidding, those countries toe the Indian line in SAARC and other international forums like G-20. In 2005, Washington expressed its intention to help India become a major world power in the 21st century.
Henry Kissinger views Indian ambitions thus: ‘Just as the early American leaders developed in the Monroe Doctrine concept for America’s special role in the Western Hemisphere, so India has established in practice a special positioning the Indian Ocean region between East Indies and the horn of Africa. Like Britain with respect to Europe in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, India strives to prevent the emergence of a dominant power in this vast portion of the globe. Just as early American leaders did not seek approval of the countries of the Western Hemisphere with respect to the Monroe Doctrine, so Indian in the region of its special strategic interests conducts its policy on the basis of its own definition of a South Asian order’.
Zbigniew Brzeszinski takes note of India’s ambition to rival China thus: ‘Indian strategies speak openly of greater India exercising a dominant position in an area ranging from Iran to Thailand. India is also position itself to control the Indian Ocean militarily, its naval and air power programs point clearly in that direction as do politically guided efforts to establish for Indi strong positions, with geostrategic implications in adjoining Bangladesh and Burma.’
Any analysis of India’s military budget should be based on actual Demands for Grants coupled with Explanatory memoranda. The allocations concealed under civil ministries outlays should be ferreted out and added to military allocations. The successive increases in revised and then actual budget estimates should be taken into account. As a result of India’s rising military expenditures, Pakistan also increases her defence expenditure.
And all this is happening while the world is focused on the covid-19 pandemic. But India merely uses this as cover!
