- Withdrawing US troops without a sustainable set-up in Kabul i bad for Afghanistan, but also for Pakistan and the region
Hours after a terrorist attack in Kabul claimed at least 35 lives, US President Donald Trump hinted at US and allied troops leaving Afghanistan even if it was to lead to a takeover of the country by the Talban. In a statement that would be highly demoralising for the Afghan people, President Trump talked about withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, maintaining that it was the responsibility of the Afghan government rather than of the USA, to protect its people. Asked if the Taliban could eventually seize power, President Trump said it is “not supposed to happen that way but it possibly will”. US public opinion cared little when President Trump abandoned his Kurdish allies last year. It is likely to look the other way again if he does the same in the case of the Afghan government.
President Trump’s Afghan policy is not guided by any moral or ideological considerations. It is mainly determined by his election concerns. With just eight months to go for the exercise, President Trump is keen to fulfil the promise of the return of US troops even if this amounts to leaving the country in turmoil and consigning the region to disturbance. The US military establishment too would endorse the withdrawal, albeit for a different reason. Not long ago, Defense Secretary Mark Esper had said that he wants to reduce the number of US troops in Afghanistan with or without a peace agreement in order to give higher priority to strategic competition with China.
An abrupt withdrawal of troops without an agreement on a post-withdrawal set-up that enjoys a modicum of stability could create a security vacuum leading to a civil war between militant factions, warlords and ethnic and sectarian outfits. Terrorist groups like the TTP, Jamaatul Ahrar and IS could increase attacks inside Pakistan while the revival of hostilities in the neighbouring country may lead Pakistan to be flooded once again by Afghan refugees. Those in Islamabad who have all along supported talks with the Taliban, may now find Pakistan has been left holding the baby as before.
