The National Security Council meeting on Monday didn’t actually have to do anything, as no course of action was to be decided upon. However, it had come to consider the situation arising out of the fact that its eastern neighbour, Iran, had been attacked by Israel, and then by the USA. The NSC meeting dialed back the condemnation of the US attack, satisfying itself with a call on all parties to remove differences by diplomatic means. This brought the Pakistani response with that of Arab countries, who have been careful not to condemn the USA. Some even have diplomatic ties with Israel, though they have given it military assistance. However, the meeting did reaffirm Iran’s right to self-defence against the attacks on its nuclear facilities. The meeting may well have had in mind that Pakistan has similar facilities, though the risk of their being attacked came not from Israel, but its friend and ally, India.
The conflict seems to be winding down without any diplomacy, except for US pressure on Israel, mainly because the alternatives are too horrible to contemplate. Iran’s next escalatory step would be to close the Hormuz Strait. As 20 percent of the world’s crude oil production passes through it, that would be catastrophic. Oil importing countries, including Pakistan, would be particularly badly hit. Iran’s attempt at a response, a missile attack on a US air base in Qatar, resulted in no casualties, and though US President Donald Trump had dismissed the attack as inconsequential, he thanked Iran for its warning, which ensured that there was no loss of life. It was almost as if he saw the Iranian response as a mere formality, and that now that an ineffectual response had been made, it was time to move on.
Though Pakistan’s own response to India’s ‘Operation Sindoor’ and then its own ‘Operation Bunyanum Marsoos’ gave it confidence that it could defend itself against proxies, the NSC should not have ducked the question of what would happen if the USA attempted a direct intervention. Just as much as Israel kept drumming in the USA that Iran was developing a nuclear weapon aimed at Israel, with the result that Israel not only attacked Iran itself, but also got the USA to join, so can it be expected that India will try its hardest to be allowed to take out Pakistan’s weapon, and will try to get the USA to take part.
