Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has said that any upgrading of relations with Afghanistan would require ‘due diligence’ and consultation with all stakeholders before it could take place. His Chinese counterpart, Wang Li, announced in the presence of Mr Dar and their Afghan counterpart, Maulana Amir Khan Muttaqi, that the two countries would exchange ambassadors. Pakistan, like the rest of the world, does not recognize the Taliban government, and exchanging ambassadors may not mean de jure recognition, but would certainly be de facto recognition. Before such a step could take place, there would have to be a significant improvement in the countries’ relations. Mr Wang stuck his neck out because of the development he also announced on Tuesday: that Afghanistan was to be included in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
On one level, this was perhaps inevitable. After the US withdrawal, China moved in, not just because it wanted to retain access to the mineral exploration rights it had, but also because it had to integrate Afghanistan into its One Belt One Road initiative. Indeed, the projects initially identified are both essentially providing transit. By road, there is to be a highway from Peshawar to Kabul. From there, it becomes possible to access the Central Asian road network, and thence to Europe. Then there is a trans-Afghanistan railway. Linked to Peshawar at its eastern end, and to Hairatan at the other (which links to Central Asia, and this Europe), it becomes possible for a train carriage to carry cargo from Urumqi in Xinjiang to John’o’Groats in the UK. Thus, apart from any mineral wealth it may have, Afghanistan would prove a crucial part of the OBOR. Another element which had to be factored in was the Pakistan-India standoff. By coming aboard, the CPEC at this point, Afghanistan was showing support for Pakistan, negating all its previous dickering’s with India. It should also be noted that China gave Pakistan a positive signal by expanding CPEC at this juncture.
It should be understood that participation in projects like CPEC require the sort of trust that exists between China and Pakistan. Pakistan and India do not enjoy that level of trust, and though the basis to build it is certainly present, it will require much effort, because relations need to be sorted out. While China and Afghanistan have reached an understanding over the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, Afghanistan and Pakistan must reach agreement on the BLA, the TTP and the Med Brigade, or the CPEC proposal will crash land before it takes off.
