Is the peace process fading out?

Social peace and economic development in Pakistan are to a considerable extent dependant on good neighbourly relations with the countries in the region, particularly India. There are of course problems left unresolved by history. The differences have to be settled peacefully and step by step, taking up the least intractable matters first and leaving the more complicated ones to the coming generations. Meanwhile, there is a need to concentrate on normalising the ties, encouraging trade, economic cooperation and people to people ties so that mutual dependencies thus created help in the resolution of core issues.

Initially there seemed to be enthusiasm about talks. Zardari’s visit to India in April was billed by both sides as satisfactory. Soon after Gen Kayani while on a visit to Siachin emphasised the need for peaceful coexistence between the two neighbours. As the meetings started, obstacles emerged from both sides, particularly from the interior ministries and the defence establishments of the two countries. When the time came for putting signature to the already agreed liberalised visa regimes Rehman Malik maintained that the pact would be concluded at the “political level.” Last week, India-Pakistan trade talks were deferred till September, again on Pakistan’s request. We are told that strategic reservations stand in the way of the import of petroleum products in bulk from India. On its part India has been reluctant to soften its position on Siachin and Sir Creek. It has also yet to remove the non tariff barriers. Meanwhile, the aggressive no-touch tango by border guards from both sides continues at the flag lowering ceremony at Wagah.

Pakistan’s establishment relates agreement on trade and economic ties to progress over ‘other issues’ like water disputes, Sir Creek, Siachen and Jammu and Kashmir. The Indian establishment demands punishment for those responsible for Mumbai attacks as a precondition for improvement in ties. The establishments on both sides seem to have lost interest in the progress of talks. Under the circumstances, there is little hope of the meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries scheduled for September making any headway. There is also little likelihood of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visiting Pakistan in the absence of ‘tangible results’. With relations with the US continuing to be tense and disagreements with Afghanistan over cross border attacks taking an ugly turn Pakistan is liable to become both isolated and vulnerable.